IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/nc8191/285760.html

Forecasting performance of Storable and Non-Storable Commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel, Scott
  • Schroeder, Ted

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the futures price at the time of production/placement decision and the price at the time of the harvest/marketing decision for the storable commodities corn, soybeans, and wheat and non-storable commodities, fed cattle and hogs. Additionally, a model is employed to identify determinants of the error associated with the use of a springtime futures price as a forecast for the harvest period price of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Results indicate that the springtime futures price is a biased forecast for the harvest price of corn, soybeans, and wheat. However, the price forecast is an unbiased estimate for the price of cattle and hogs during the marketing period. The predictability of supply and demand estimates and the time period of the price forecast for the storable commodities are significantly related to the error associated with the forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel, Scott & Schroeder, Ted, 1999. "Forecasting performance of Storable and Non-Storable Commodities," 1981-1999 Conference Archive 285760, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285760
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285760/files/confp21-99.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285760?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:nc8191:285760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.