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Agricultural Price Expectations: An Erroneous, but Better Approach to Measurement

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  • Weaver, Robert D.

Abstract

The subjective, market level expectation of price is an unobservable which at best can be measured with error. The usefulness of the past and current cash prices and futures prices are considered. An errors-invariables model of price expectations is introduced and applied in a model of U. S. aggregate soybean supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Weaver, Robert D., 1981. "Agricultural Price Expectations: An Erroneous, but Better Approach to Measurement," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279390, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea81:279390
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.279390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    2. Anne E. Peck, 1976. "Futures Markets, Supply Response, and Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 90(3), pages 407-423.
    3. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 555-561, October.
    4. Weaver, Robert D. & Shumway, C. Richard & Chang, Anne A., 1978. "Supply and Input Choice Response by Multiple Product Firms: New Approaches," AE & RS Research Reports 257687, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    5. Tetteh A. Kofi, 1973. "A Framework for Comparing the Efficiency of Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 55(4_Part_1), pages 584-594.
    6. William G. Tomek & Roger W. Gray, 1970. "Temporal Relationships Among Prices on Commodity Futures Markets: Their Allocative and Stabilizing Roles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 372-380.
    7. Heifner, Richard G., 1973. "Hedging Potential in Grain Storage and Livestock Feeding," Agricultural Economic Reports 307482, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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