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Commodity market risk from 1995 to 2013: an extreme value theory approach

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  • Torun Fretheim
  • Glenn Kristiansen

Abstract

In this article we examine whether extreme risk has increased in the agricultural commodity market during the period 1995-2013. We add to the literature on food price volatility by analysing the tail segment of futures price return distributions. Food price variability is a concern for governments and regulators worldwide, as most nations trade in food. High food price variability can contribute to poverty and malnourishment, in particular for people in less economically developed economies. We find no indications of systematically increasing tail-risk for the commodities in our sample. Analysis of estimated shape-parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution further supports the conclusion that there is no general systematic change in the extreme risk associated with these commodity investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Torun Fretheim & Glenn Kristiansen, 2015. "Commodity market risk from 1995 to 2013: an extreme value theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(26), pages 2768-2782, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:26:p:2768-2782
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1011307
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    2. Zhang, Xu & Yang, Xian & He, Qizhi, 2022. "Multi-scale systemic risk and spillover networks of commodity markets in the bullish and bearish regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Maria Magdalena Turek Rahoveanu & Adrian Turek Rahoveanu & Cristian Popescu & Gheorghe Adrian Zugravu, 2015. "Entrepreneurial Potential In The Territory Gal Microregion Horezu Village From The Perspective Of 2014-2020," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 397-408.
    4. Powell, Robert J. & Vo, Duc H. & Pham, Thach N. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 32-44.
    5. Jittima Singvejsakul & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2021. "The Optimization of Bayesian Extreme Value: Empirical Evidence for the Agricultural Commodities in the US," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
    6. Zeeshan Mustafa & Giuliano Vitali & Ray Huffaker & Maurizio Canavari, 2024. "A systematic review on price volatility in agriculture," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 268-294, February.
    7. Zheng, Yixing & Ramsey, Austin F., 2022. "Extreme Correlation Between Daily Basis Returns of Local Corn Markets in North Carolina," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322373, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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