IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs

  • Etienne, Xiaoli L.
  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Garcia, Philip

Corn prices experienced enormous volatility over the last decade. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregression model to quantify the relative importance of various contributing factors in driving corn price movements. The identification of the structural parameters is achieved through a data-determined approach—the PC algorithm of Directed Acyclic Graphs. We find that, in general, unexpected shocks in aggregate global demand and speculative trading activities do not have a statistically significant effect on corn price movements. By contrast, shocks in the crude oil market have large immediate effects that persist in the long-run. The forecast error variance decomposition suggest that at the two-year horizon, variations in crude oil prices account for over 50% of the total corn forecast error variances. We also find that, consistent with theory, unexpected shocks in market-specific fundamentals also have large negative effects on price movements. In addition, unexpected residual shocks play an important role in corn price movement, especially in the short-run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/151279
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 151279.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151279
Contact details of provider: Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters:," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Pindyck, Robert S. & Rotemberg, Julio., 1987. "The excess co-movement of commodity prices," Working papers 1969-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Xiaodong Du & Cindy L. Yu & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 09-wp491, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2008. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 37512, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  6. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
  7. Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
  9. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
  10. Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver & Farhi, Emmanuel & Caballero, Ricardo J., 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices, and Global Imbalances," Scholarly Articles 3229095, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
  12. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
  13. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2013. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Working Papers 19065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002. "Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19057, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  15. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
  16. Trujillo-Barrera, Andres & Mallory, Mindy L. & Garcia, Philip, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), August.
  17. Mindy L. Mallory & Dermot J. Hayes & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 10-wp517, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  18. Melolinna, Marko, 2012. "Macroeconomic shocks in an oil market var," Working Paper Series 1432, European Central Bank.
  19. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
  20. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Du, Xiaodong & Muhammad, Andrew, 2012. "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: The Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
  21. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
  22. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:151279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.