Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest
Do food prices cause political unrest? Throughout history, riots appear to have frequently broken out as a consequence of high food prices. This paper studies the impact of food prices on political unrest using monthly data on food prices at the international level. Because food prices and political unrest are jointly determined, the incidence of natural disasters in a given month is used in an attempt to identify the causal relationship between food prices and political unrest. Empirical results indicate that between January 1990 and January 2011, food price increases have led to increased political unrest, whereas food price volatility has been associated with decreases in political unrest. These findings are consistent with those of the applied microeconomics literature on the welfare impacts of food prices.
|Date of creation:||28 Jun 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Dorward, Andrew & Kydd, Jonathan & Morrison, Jamie & Urey, Ian, 2004.
"A Policy Agenda for Pro-Poor Agricultural Growth,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-89, January.
- Eldar Shafir & Peter Diamond & Amos Tversky, 1997. "Money Illusion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 341-374.
- Barrett, Christopher B., 1996. "On price risk and the inverse farm size-productivity relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 193-215, December.
- Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, .
"Does Money Illusion Matter?,"
IEW - Working Papers
012, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
- Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
- Rabah Arezki & Markus Brückner, 2011.
"Food prices and political instability,"
NCID Working Papers
01/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Hansen, Christian, 2008. "The reduced form: A simple approach to inference with weak instruments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 68-71, July.
- Bellemare, Marc F. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Just, David R., 2010. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Fluctuations: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 24457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jacks, David S. & O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2009.
"Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
- David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," NBER Working Papers 14748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp280, IIIS.
- David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp284, IIIS.
- Peter Clark, 1976. "Popular Protest and Disturbance in Kent, 1558–1640," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 29(3), pages 365-382, 08.
- Rosamond L. Naylor & Walter P. Falcon, 2010. "Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 693-723, December.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maxwell, Daniel G., 1995. "Alternative food security strategy: A household analysis of urban agriculture in Kampala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1669-1681, October.
- Brown, Douglas R., 2009. "Starved for science: How biotechnology is being kept out of Africa, Robert Paarlberg. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 2008, 235pp. US$24.95 (hardback) ISBN 978-0-674-02973-6," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 101(1-2), pages 111-112, June.
- David Strömberg, 2007. "Natural Disasters, Economic Development, and Humanitarian Aid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 199-222, Summer.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.