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Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest

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  • Bellemare, Marc F.

Abstract

Do food prices cause political unrest? Throughout history, riots appear to have frequently broken out as a consequence of high food prices. This paper studies the impact of food prices on political unrest using monthly data on food prices at the international level. Because food prices and political unrest are jointly determined, the incidence of natural disasters in a given month is used in an attempt to identify the causal relationship between food prices and political unrest. Empirical results indicate that between January 1990 and January 2011, food price increases have led to increased political unrest, whereas food price volatility has been associated with decreases in political unrest. These findings are consistent with those of the applied microeconomics literature on the welfare impacts of food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31888
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Identifying Causal Relationships vs. Ruling Out All Other Possible Causes
      by Marc F. Bellemare in Marc F. Bellemare on 2012-04-24 14:00:21

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    Cited by:

    1. Pio Baake & Steffen Huck, 2013. "Crop Failures and Export Tariffs," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1342, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers 19/075, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Bellemare, Marc F. & Carnes, Nicholas, 2015. "Why do members of congress support agricultural protection?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 20-34.
    5. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/075, African Governance and Development Institute..
    6. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda Nduka Okolo-Obasi & Simplice Anutechia Asongu, 2021. "Analysis of farmers’ food price volatility and Nigeria’s growth enhancement support scheme," African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 463-478, June.
    7. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    8. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Analysis of Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Working Papers 20/069, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    9. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jesse Tack & David Ubilava, 2013. "The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on U.S. corn production and downside risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 689-700, December.
    11. Dingqiang Sun & Huanguang Qiu & Junfei Bai & Haiyan Liu & Guanghua Lin & Scott Rozelle, 2013. "Liquidity Constraints and Postharvest Selling Behavior: Evidence from China's Maize Farmers," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 51(3), pages 260-277, September.
    12. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    13. Durevall, Dick & van der Weide, Roy, 2014. "Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR," Working Papers in Economics 607, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    14. Dick Durevall & Roy Weide, 2017. "Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 164-181, February.
    15. Eberhard Weber, 2012. "Economic reform, social development and conflict in India," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 207-230, August.
    16. Romero-Aguilar, Randall S. & Miranda, Mario J., 2014. "Food Security for Whom? The Effectiveness of Food Reserves in Poor Developing Countries," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Marc F. Bellemare, 2014. "Comment on "Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation, and Poverty"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 339-344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Babatunde Abidoye & Massimiliano Calì, 2021. "Income Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 30(5), pages 480-509.
    19. Kolleen J. Rask & Norman Rask, 2017. "The Impact of Regime Type on Food Consumption in Low Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(1), pages 107-125, March.
    20. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David A. & Price, Edwin C., 2015. "A Causal Exploration of Food Price Shocks and Conflict in Sudan," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 202612, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Chen, Junyi & Kibriya, Shahriar & Bessler, David & Price, Edwin, 2015. "A Causal Exploration of Conflict Events and Commodity Prices of Sudan," MPRA Paper 62461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Prices; Price Volatility; Political Unrest; Food Riots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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