IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v15y2025i1p91-d1559245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price Volatility in the European Wheat and Corn Market in the Black Sea Agreement Context

Author

Listed:
  • Elżbieta M. Kacperska

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Katarzyna Łukasiewicz

    (Management Institute, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Marta Skrzypczyk

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Joanna Stefańczyk

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The outbreak of war in Ukraine has severely disrupted global food and agricultural markets and affected commodity prices. The grain agreement, also known as the Black Sea Initiative, was concluded on 22 July 2022 by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations, to alleviate the global food crisis caused by the conflict. This study aims to ascertain whether the agreement has resulted in the stabilization of cereal markets, examining the evolution of prices of wheat and corn, which are of significant importance in Ukrainian exports, throughout the duration of the agreement, including its signing, implementation, and expiration. The analysis, based on the GARCH model and using daily quotations of corn and wheat futures contracts of the European futures exchange Euronext from December 2021 to May 2024, indicates that prices were characterized by exceptionally high volatility in the period preceding the signing of the agreement, and at the time of its expiration. The uncertainty regarding cereal trade conditions has triggered shocks, with a long-lasting impact on price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Elżbieta M. Kacperska & Katarzyna Łukasiewicz & Marta Skrzypczyk & Joanna Stefańczyk, 2025. "Price Volatility in the European Wheat and Corn Market in the Black Sea Agreement Context," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:1:p:91-:d:1559245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/1/91/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/15/1/91/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer Clapp, 2009. "Food Price Volatility and Vulnerability in the Global South: considering the global economic context," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 1183-1196.
    2. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    3. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-2295, October.
    4. Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    5. Rosamond L. Naylor & Walter P. Falcon, 2010. "Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(4), pages 693-723, December.
    6. Lafang Wang & Wenjing Duan & Dan Qu & Shaojun Wang, 2018. "What matters for global food price volatility?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1549-1572, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yiling Ye & Xiaowen Zhuang & Cai Yi & Dinggao Liu & Zhenpeng Tang, 2025. "Enhancing Agricultural Futures Return Prediction: Insights from Rolling VMD, Economic Factors, and Mixed Ensembles," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Nicolae Istudor & Marius Constantin & Donatella Privitera & Raluca Ignat & Irina-Elena Petrescu & Cristian Teodor, 2025. "Systemic Competitiveness in the EU Cereal Value Chain: A Network Perspective for Policy Alignment," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Encarnación Moral-Pajares & Leticia Gallego-Valero, 2025. "Globalisation, Regionalisation, Market Integration and Price Analysis of Agricultural Products," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-3, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    3. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    4. Yusuke Matsuki, 2016. "A Distribution-Free Test of Monotonicity with an Application to Auctions," Working Papers e110, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    5. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    6. Sam Fankhauser & Cameron Hepburn, 2009. "Carbon markets in space and time," GRI Working Papers 3, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Canuto, Otaviano & Vostroknutova, Ekaterina, 2010. "Dealing with Dutch Disease," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 16, pages 1-7, June.
    8. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    9. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Maurizio Intartaglia, 2016. "Economic Diversification in Resource Rich Countries: Uncovering the State of Knowledge," Working Paper Series 09816, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Mario J. Crucini & Gregor W. Smith, 2016. "Distance and Time Effects in Swedish Commodity Prices, 1732–1914," NBER Working Papers 22175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2025. "The role of storage in commodity markets: Indirect inference based on grain data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), pages 705-747, May.
    12. Rivera-Ferre, Marta G. & Ortega-Cerda, Miquel, 2011. "Assessment of the Agri-food System for Sustainability: Recognizing Ignorance," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115965, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Laura Panza, 2012. "Globalisation and the Ottoman Empire: A study of integration between Ottoman and world cotton markets," Working Papers 2012.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    14. Wolfram Schlenker, 2018. "Introduction to "Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior"," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 1-9, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Valenti, Daniele & Bertoni, Danilo & Cavicchioli, Davide & Olper, Alessandro, 2023. "Understanding the role of supply and demand factors in the global wheat market: a Structural Vector Autoregressive approach," FEEM Working Papers 338780, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Gao, Yixuan & Malone, Trey & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Myers, Robert J., 2023. "Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    17. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    18. Qianqian Shao & Dusan Drabik & Marnus Gouse & Justus Wesseler, 2020. "Food self-sufficiency and GM regulation under conflicting interests: the case of GM maize in South Africa," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 110-128, January.
    19. Kathleen J. Brown & Roos Haer & Gudrun Østby, 2023. "Local Food Price Volatility and School Dropout in Sub‐Saharan Africa," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(3), pages 443-468, September.
    20. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:15:y:2025:i:1:p:91-:d:1559245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.