IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v13y2023i11p2154-d1280989.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Hamulczuk

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Karolina Pawlak

    (Faculty of Economics, Poznan University of Life Sciences, 60-637 Poznan, Poland)

  • Joanna Stefańczyk

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Jarosław Gołębiewski

    (Institute of Economics and Finance, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Hamulczuk & Karolina Pawlak & Joanna Stefańczyk & Jarosław Gołębiewski, 2023. "Agri-Food Supply and Retail Food Prices during the Russia–Ukraine Conflict’s Early Stage: Implications for Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:11:p:2154-:d:1280989
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/11/2154/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/11/2154/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isaac Bonuedi & Kofi Kamasa & Eric Evans Osei Opoku, 2020. "Enabling trade across borders and food security in Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(5), pages 1121-1140, October.
    2. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    3. Nicolas Legrand, 2023. "War in Ukraine: The rational “wait‐and‐see” mode of global food markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 626-644, June.
    4. Petra Hellegers, 2022. "Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1503-1510, December.
    5. Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Tarek Ben Hassen & Hamid El Bilali & Dele Raheem & António Raposo, 2023. "Food Security Challenges in Europe in the Context of the Prolonged Russian–Ukrainian Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Sarah F. W. Taylor & Michael J. Roberts & Ben Milligan & Ronney Ncwadi, 2019. "Measurement and implications of marine food security in the Western Indian Ocean: an impending crisis?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1395-1415, December.
    7. Jonathan Brooks & Alan Matthews, 2015. "Trade Dimensions of Food Security," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 77, OECD Publishing.
    8. Dave Donaldson, 2015. "The Gains from Market Integration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 619-647, August.
    9. Ephraim Leibtag, 2009. "How Much and How Quick? Pass through of Commodity and Input Cost Changes to Retail Food Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1462-1467.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elżbieta M. Kacperska & Katarzyna Łukasiewicz & Marta Skrzypczyk & Joanna Stefańczyk, 2025. "Price Volatility in the European Wheat and Corn Market in the Black Sea Agreement Context," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, 2025. "The Russia–Ukraine Conflict: A Global Impact Assessment in the Corn and Wheat Sectors," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Nicolae Istudor & Marius Constantin & Donatella Privitera & Raluca Ignat & Irina-Elena Petrescu & Cristian Teodor, 2025. "Systemic Competitiveness in the EU Cereal Value Chain: A Network Perspective for Policy Alignment," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-31, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Andreea-Emanuela Dragoi, 2023. "Quo Vadis the Common Agricultural Policy amid Tomorrow’s Challenges?," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 11(1), pages 24-31, May.
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stanislav Yugay & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2024. "Impact of the Ruble exchange rate regime and Russia's war in Ukraine on wheat prices in Russia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 384-411, March.
    5. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    6. Siemen Berkum, 2021. "How trade can drive inclusive and sustainable food system outcomes in food deficit low-income countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1541-1554, December.
    7. Maksym Chepeliev & Maryla Maliszewska & Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira, 2023. "The War in Ukraine, Food Security and the Role for Europe," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 4-13, April.
    8. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    9. Bosker, M. & Haasbroek, M., 2025. "Domestic Infrastructure and the Regional Effects of Trade Liberalization," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2512, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Qian, Anqi, 2024. "Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    13. Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Philomena Dadzie & Dorcas Oye Haywood-Dadzie, 2023. "Measuring the Effect of Income Inequality, Financial Inclusion, Investment, and Unemployment, on Economic Growth in Africa: A Moderating Role of Digital Financial Technology," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 111-124, July.
    14. Franck, Raphaël & Galor, Oded, 2021. "Flowers of evil? Industrialization and long run development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 108-128.
    15. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2019. "High-speed rail and inventory reduction: firm-level evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(25), pages 2715-2730, May.
    16. Umar Isah, YAHAYA & Ojonugwa Anthony, BERNARD & Z.S., SAHEED & salihu, AYODEJI & Yakubu, ALFA, 2024. "Impact of Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers on Food Security in ECOWAS Region," MPRA Paper 123114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2024.
    17. Ferrari, Davide & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2021. "Forecasting energy commodity prices: A large global dataset sparse approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Binkley, James K. & Volpe, Richard & Young, Jeffrey S., 2014. "Competition between Private Labels and National Brands: a Simple Econometric Test and Application to Dairy Markets," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170544, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Danilo Đokić & Bojan Matkovski & Marija Jeremić & Ivan Đurić, 2022. "Land Productivity and Agri-Environmental Indicators: A Case Study of Western Balkans," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Caitriona Dowd & Samuel S. Polzin & Kelsey Gleason & Rebecca Yang & Pranay Narang & Ronak Patel, 2024. "Conflict's impacts on food systems: Mapping available evidence of interactions," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(4), pages 2152-2171, May.
    21. Florian Humpenöder & Alexander Popp & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Anton Orlov & Michael Gregory Windisch & Inga Menke & Julia Pongratz & Felix Havermann & Wim Thiery & Fei Luo & Patrick v. Jeetze & J, 2022. "Overcoming global inequality is critical for land-based mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:11:p:2154-:d:1280989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.