Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach

Food supply fluctuations remain a major challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this regard, this study empirically examined the impact of agricultural productivity on food security stability in 37 selected countries in SSA from 1990 to 2016, using the pooled, least square dummy variable (LSDV), random and system generalized methods of moments (SYS-GMM) models. The study adopted per-capita food supply variability (PCFSV) as a measure of food security stability while agriculture value-added contribution to gross domestic product (AGVA) and crop production (CRPROD) were selected indicators of agricultural productivity. The LSDV and SYS-GMM model estimations revealed that agricultural productivity and the control factors contributed significantly, though with a mix of positive and negative effects, to food security stability in the selected countries in SSA during the period under review. The LSDV model showed that AGVA had no statistically significant positive effect on food security stability, however, this was corrected in the SYS-GMM model, but with a positive impact. The study concludes that stability in food security is achieved and sustained by improving agricultural productivity. Based on the findings, the study recommended that food security stability should be improved by enhancing agricultural productivity through ensuring effective implementation of pro-agriculture growth policies in SSA