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Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

As China becomes more industrial and urbanized, it is likely to become more dependent over time on imports of (especially land-intensive) farm products, most notably livestock feedstuffs. If farmers are slow to adjust to their declining competitiveness, for example by obtaining off-farm employment, the farm-nonfarm household income gap may increase. A decline in food self-sufficiency may be perceived as undermining national food security, and a persistent farm-nonfarm income gap as contributing to social unrest. In these circumstances, what offsetting or compensating policy options should the government consider for ensuring adequate long-term food security and less income inequality? This paper evaluates China's historical record since 1980 and then projects China's economy to 2030, using the GTAP global economy-wide model. It draws on past policy experiences of both China and more-advanced economies to evaluate prospective interventions by government to address food security and income inequality concerns. The potential effects of some of those are estimated for 2030, again using the GTAP model. The paper concludes by suggesting alternative ways to achieve the fundamental objectives of national food security and less rural-urban income inequality, namely via generic social safety nets and improved rural infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries," Departmental Working Papers 2014-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2014-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Emiko Fukase & Will Martin, 2016. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 3-23, February.
    2. Xiujuan Chen & Linhai Wu & Lijie Shan & Qiuxia Zang, 2018. "Main Factors Affecting Post-Harvest Grain Loss during the Sales Process: A Survey in Nine Provinces of China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Jianzhai Wu & Jianhua Zhang & Shengwei Wang & Fantao Kong, 2016. "Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Jingdong Li & Weidong Liu & Zhouying Song, 2020. "Sustainability of the Adjustment Schemes in China’s Grain Price Support Policy—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model of Wheat," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    5. Balié, Jean & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2020. "Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:183:d:64865 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2019. "Future Grain Consumption Trends and Implications on Grain Security in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(19), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Martin, William J. & Fukase, Emiko, 2014. "Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197164, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Yiming Fu & Yaoping Cui & Yaochen Qin & Nan Li & Liangyu Chen & Haoming Xia, 2019. "Continued Hydrothermal and Radiative Pressure on Changed Cropland in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(14), pages 1-14, July.
    10. Gong, Binlei, 2018. "Interstate competition in agriculture: Cheer or fear? Evidence from the United States and China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 37-47.
    11. Andi Syah Putra & Guangji Tong & Didit Okta Pribadi, 2020. "Food Security Challenges in Rapidly Urbanizing Developing Countries: Insight from Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    12. Zhou, Jian & Cao, Xiaoshu, 2020. "What is the policy improvement of China’s land consolidation? Evidence from completed land consolidation projects in Shaanxi Province," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Ogunlesi, Ayodeji & Bokana, Koye & Okoye, Chidozie & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach," MPRA Paper 90204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fander Falconí & Juan Cadillo Benalcazar & Freddy Llive Cóndor & Jesus Ramos-Martin & Belén Liger, 2015. "Pérdida de autosuficiencia alimentaria y posibilidades de complementariedad agrícola en los países de UNASUR," Documentos de Trabajo CEPROEC 2015_06, Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales, Centro de Prospectiva Estratégica.
    15. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "Sustainability in the food-energy-water nexus: Evidence from BRICS (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China, and South Africa) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 999-1010.
    16. Rada, Nicholas & Wang, Chenggang & Qin, Lijian, 2015. "Subsidy or market reform? Rethinking China’s farm consolidation strategy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 93-103.
    17. Fang Xia & Lingling Hou & Songqing Jin & Dongqing Li, 2020. "Land size and productivity in the livestock sector: evidence from pastoral areas in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 867-888, July.
    18. Tianxiang Li & Tomas Baležentis & Lijuan Cao & Jing Zhu & Irena Kriščiukaitienė & Rasa Melnikienė, 2016. "Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, November.
    19. Zhixin Zeng & Xiaojun Wang, 2021. "Effects of Domestic Tourism on Urban-Rural Income Inequality: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.
    20. De Yu & Shougeng Hu & Luyi Tong & Cong Xia, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Cultivated Land and Its Influences on Grain Production Potential in Hunan Province, China," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, December.
    21. Xinliang Xu & Liang Wang & Hongyan Cai & Luyao Wang & Luo Liu & Hongzhi Wang, 2017. "The influences of spatiotemporal change of cultivated land on food crop production potential in China," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(3), pages 485-495, June.
    22. Kym Anderson, 2016. "National and global price- and trade-distorting policies," Departmental Working Papers 2016-07, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China's economic growth; Food security; Farm productivity growth; Global economy-wide model projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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