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Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ajar12039-abs-0001"> Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the ongoing benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming that trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:58:y:2014:i:4:p:590-606
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ajar.2014.58.issue-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 112-126, January.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2018. "Mining’s impact on the competitiveness of other sectors in a resource-rich economy: Australia since the 1840s," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 141-151, May.
    3. Piyasiri Wickramasekara, 2015. "Mainstreaming migration in development agendas: assessment of South Asian countries," Departmental Working Papers 2015-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    5. Mishra, Saurabh & Tewari, Ishani & Toosi, Siavash, 2020. "Economic complexity and the globalization of services," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 267-280.
    6. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    7. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    8. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "Food competition in world markets: Some evidence from a panel data analysis of top exporting countries," DEM Working Papers Series 083, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2015. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 69-94, April.
    10. Ram N. Acharya & Rafael Perez-Pena, 2020. "Role of Comparative Advantage in Biofuel Policy Adoption in Latin America," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    11. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Valuation effects, risk sharing, and consumption smoothing," Departmental Working Papers 2015-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    12. Sayari, Naz & Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2018. "The impact of value added components of GDP and FDI on economic freedom in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 282-294.
    13. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Mercantilism and China’s hunger for international reserves," Departmental Working Papers 2015-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    14. Hom M Pant, 2015. "A generic approach to investment modelling in recursive dynamic CGE models," Departmental Working Papers 2015-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    15. Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone & Lucia Baldi, 2017. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Energy and Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    16. Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2018. "State-owned enterprise reform in Vietnam: A dynamic CGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 42-57.
    17. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 50-58.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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