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Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

Rapid economic growth in some emerging economies in recent decades has significantly increased their global economic importance. If this rapid growth continues and is strongest in resource-poor Asian economies, the growth in global demand for imports of primary products also will continue, to the on-going benefit of natural resource-rich countries. This paper explores how global production, consumption and trade patterns might change over the next two decades in the course of economic development and structural changes under various scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database with a base year of 2007, along with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy to 2030. We first project a baseline assuming trade-related policies do not change in each region but that factor endowments and real GDP grow at exogenously-estimated rates. That baseline is compared with two alternative scenarios: one in which the growth rates of China and India are lower by one-quarter, and the other in which this slowdown in emerging economies leads to slower productivity growth in the primary sectors of all countries. Throughout the results, implications are drawn out for natural resource-abundant economies, including Australia and New Zealand.

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  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," Departmental Working Papers 2013-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2013-17
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    2. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Mercantilism and China’s hunger for international reserves," Departmental Working Papers 2015-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    3. Hom M Pant, 2015. "A generic approach to investment modelling in recursive dynamic CGE models," Departmental Working Papers 2015-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Growth in Densely Populated Asia: Implications for Primary Product Exporters," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 112-126, January.
    5. Mishra, Saurabh & Tewari, Ishani & Toosi, Siavash, 2020. "Economic complexity and the globalization of services," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 267-280.
    6. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 50-58.
    7. Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone & Lucia Baldi, 2017. "Volatility Spillover between Water, Energy and Food," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    8. Kym Anderson, 2018. "Mining’s impact on the competitiveness of other sectors in a resource-rich economy: Australia since the 1840s," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 141-151, May.
    9. Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2018. "State-owned enterprise reform in Vietnam: A dynamic CGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 42-57.
    10. Federal Reserve Bank Kansas City, 2018. "Agriculture in a Global Economy: 2018 Agricultural Symposium," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Special I, pages 1-96.
    11. Piyasiri Wickramasekara, 2015. "Mainstreaming migration in development agendas: assessment of South Asian countries," Departmental Working Papers 2015-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    12. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    13. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2015. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 69-94, April.
    14. Donatella Baiardi & Carluccio Bianchi & Eleonora Lorenzini, 2014. "Food competition in world markets: Some evidence from a panel data analysis of top exporting countries," DEM Working Papers Series 083, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    16. Ram N. Acharya & Rafael Perez-Pena, 2020. "Role of Comparative Advantage in Biofuel Policy Adoption in Latin America," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    17. Marcel Schroder, 2015. "Valuation effects, risk sharing, and consumption smoothing," Departmental Working Papers 2015-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; booming sector economics; food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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