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Sectoral trends and shocks in Australia’s economic growth

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  • Kym Anderson

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which sectoral trends and fluctuations in the Australian economy can be understood using international trade theory and knowledge of key policy developments. It suggests they are consistent with theory, but it also reveals several features that make Australia’s economy unusual. The most striking are the facts that (1) the agricultural sector’s share of GDP remained fairly constant rather than falling during 1860- 1960 and even during the latest mining boom; and (2) the farm sector continued to enjoy a strong comparative advantage despite periodic spurts of growth in mining exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 2016. "Sectoral trends and shocks in Australia’s economic growth," Departmental Working Papers 2016-18, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2016-18
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    File URL: https://acde.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/acde_crawford_anu_edu_au/2016-10/2016-18_anderson_butlin_lecture_3rev1016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Bill Malcolm & Vic Wright, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: farm management," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 516-530, October.
    2. Kym Anderson & Peter Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia Since World War II," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 461-482, December.
    3. Anderson, Kym, 1987. "On why agriculture declines with economic growth," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 195-207, October.
    4. Kym Anderson & William A. Masters, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2607, September.
    5. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Versus Nonagricultural Producer Incentives," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 55-74, September.
    6. Anderson, Kym & Lattimore, Ralph G. & Lloyd, Peter J. & MacLaren, Donald, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia and New Zealand," 2007 Conference (51st), February 13-16, 2007, Queenstown, New Zealand 10407, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Geoff Edwards & Winton Bates, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: agricultural adjustment," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 573-589, October.
    8. Freebairn, John, 2015. "Mining booms and the exchange rate," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(4), October.
    9. Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Five Decades of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48742, World Bank.
    10. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    11. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Brian S. Fisher, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: climate change policy and energy transition," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 692-705, October.
    12. repec:ags:aareaj:280249 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Anderson, Kym, 1998. "Are resource-abundant economies disadvantaged?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(1), pages 1-23.
    15. Maddock, Rodney & McLean, Ian, 1984. "Supply-Side Shocks: The Case of Australian Gold," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 1047-1067, December.
    16. Smith, Brock, 2015. "The resource curse exorcised: Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 57-73.
    17. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    18. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Maksym Polyakov & Fiona L. Gibson & David J. Pannell, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: Trends in topics, authorship and collaboration," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 506-515, October.
    19. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2611, November.
    20. Auty, R. & Warhurst, A., 1993. "Sustainable development in mineral exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 14-29, March.
    21. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-999, October.
    22. Anderson, Kym & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48624, World Bank.
    23. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Julian M. Alston & Philip G. Pardey, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: agricultural innovation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 554-568, October.
    24. Syrquin, Moshe & Chenery, Hollis, 1989. "Three decades of industrialization," MPRA Paper 32771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Alan V. Deardorff, 1984. "An Exposition and Exploration of Krueger's Trade Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 731-746, November.
    26. Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 9436, September.
    27. Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Small, remote and poor?," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 453-457, November.
    28. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & John Freebairn, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: booming sector economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 633-646, October.
    29. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & John C. Quiggin & Jock R. Anderson, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: risk and uncertainty," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 535-549, October.
    30. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & David Pannell & Graeme Doole & Jimmy Cheung, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: natural resource management," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 651-667, October.
    31. Llyod, Peter & MacLaren, Donald, 2015. "Relative assistance to Australian agriculture and manufacturing since Federation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), April.
    32. Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Political Economy of Distortions to Agricultural Incentives: Introduction and Summary," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 50306, World Bank.
    33. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-422, January.
    34. Julian M. Alston & Kym Anderson & Philip G. Pardey & Jeff Bennett & Alan Randall, 2016. "Antipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: environmental economics," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 60(4), pages 672-687, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2018. "Structural transformation to manufacturing and services: what role for trade?," Departmental Working Papers 2018-26, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural development; mining booms; structural transformation; trade costs; manufacturing protection;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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