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Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030

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  • Kym Anderson

    (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI))

  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, the People’s Republic of China, and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy that compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviors to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of gross domestic product (GDP), “openness†to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia’s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:23309
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 877-931, Elsevier.
    2. Brooks, Douglas & Ferrarini, Benno & Go, Eugenia, 2013. "Bilateral Trade and Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 367, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Petri, Peter A. & Zhai, Fan, 2013. "Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India," ADBI Working Papers 404, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Kym Anderson, 2012. "Policy Responses to Changing Perceptions of the Role of Agriculture in Development," Departmental Working Papers 2012-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; food security; Asia; alternative growth strategies; trade policy scenarios; agricultural self-sufficiency; food consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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