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Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy

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  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

Abstract

This paper projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy. The baseline projection assumes trade-related policies do not change in each region but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. This enables us to analyse how potential global changes may impact the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the impacts of three potential policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, as might be associated with the opening of Myanmar; Indonesia's recently-imposed export taxes on unprocessed primary products; and implementation of Indonesia's new Food Law.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Departmental Working Papers 2014-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2014-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahadevan, Renuka & Nugroho, Anda & Amir, Hidayat, 2017. "Do inward looking trade policies affect poverty and income inequality? Evidence from Indonesia's recent wave of rising protectionism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economy-wide model projections; Indonesian economic growth and structural change; Food policy; Export taxes;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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