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Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy

  • Kym Anderson
  • Anna Strutt

This paper projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We employ the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources to support projections of the global economy. The baseline projection assumes trade-related policies do not change in each region but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. This enables us to analyse how potential global changes may impact the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the impacts of three potential policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, as might be associated with the opening of Myanmar; Indonesia's recently-imposed export taxes on unprocessed primary products; and implementation of Indonesia's new Food Law.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/publications/publish/papers/wp2014/wp_econ_2014_10.pdf
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Paper provided by The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2014-10.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2014-10
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  1. Peter A. Petri, 2010. "The Determinants of Bilateral FDI: Is Asia Different?," Working Papers 12, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
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  4. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2013. "Emerging Economies, Productivity Growth, and Trade with Resource-Rich Economies by 2030," Departmental Working Papers 2013-17, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. Leamer, Edward E, 1987. "Paths of Development in the Three-Factor, n-Good General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 961-99, October.
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  12. Tiwari, Sailesh & Skoufias, Emmanuel & Sherpa, Maya, 2013. "Shorter, cheaper, quicker, better : linking measures of household food security to nutritional outcomes in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Uganda, and Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6584, The World Bank.
  13. Paul J. Burke & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2012. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 299-324, December.
  14. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  15. Kym Anderson & Mari Pangestu, 1998. "Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 85-113.
  16. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2002. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 247-272, March.
  17. Vivi Alatas & Abhijit Banerjee & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken & Julia Tobias, 2012. "Targeting the Poor: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1206-40, June.
  18. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  19. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Tiwari, Sailesh & Zaman, Hassan, 2011. "Can we rely on cash transfers to protect dietary diversity during food crises ? estimates from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5548, The World Bank.
  21. Timilsina, Govinda & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment," Staff General Research Papers 32206, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  22. Roberto Roson & Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe, 2012. "Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 270-285.
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