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Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia

  • Kym Anderson
  • Mari Pangestu

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy? Taking an economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 34 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 85-113

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Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:34:y:1998:i:3:p:85-113
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  1. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521351058 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. McKibbin, W.J., 1996. "Quantifying APEC Trade Libralization: A Dynamic Analysis," Papers 122, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  3. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
  4. Bernard, A.B. & Jones, C.I., 1993. "Productivity Across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," Working papers 93-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
  6. Deardoff, A.V. & Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1995. "Modelling Multilateral Trade Liberalization in Services," Working Papers 378, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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