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Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will pay for its food imports. The paper addresses this question by first reviewing existing food sector projections and then taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores the effects of slower global agricultural productivity growth and of slower economic growth in China. Several policy shocks are also examined. They include the entry of China (and hence Taiwan) into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the failure to fully abolish the bilateral quotas on textiles and clothing trade as promised under the Uruguay Round. A slow-down in farm productivity growth could be very costly to the world economy, as could slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries is shown to reduce East Asia’s industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China’s WTO membership would greatly benefit the economies of China and the world. It would boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand, not only by China, but also its densely populated neighbours with whom its intra- and inter-industry trade in manufactures would intensify.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1996. "Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, April.
    2. Seale, James & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 184321, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    8. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anania, Giovanni, 2001. "Modeling Agricultural Trade Liberalization. A Review," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20758, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Yongzheng Yang & Montfort Mlachila, 2007. "The end of textiles quotas: A case study of the impact on Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 675-699.
    3. Fuller, Frank H. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fang, Cheng & de Cara, Stephane & Matthey, Holger, 2001. "China'S Accession To The World Trade Organization: Impact On Agricultural Markets," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20619, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Anderson, Kym & Huang, Jikun & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 443-456.
    5. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip, 2003. "Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 28(3), May.
    7. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    8. Hans Meijl & Frank Tongeren, 1998. "Trade, technology spillovers, and food production in China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 423-449, September.
    9. Nasurudeen, P. & Kuruvila, Anil & Sendhil, R. & Chandresekar, V., 2006. "The Dynamics and Inequality of Nutrient Consumption in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(3).
    10. Rae, Allan N. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Future developments in global livestock and grains markets: the impacts of livestock productivity convergence in Asia-Pacific," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(3), September.
    11. Anderson, Kym, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 025, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Masayoshi Homna & Ray Trewin & Jennifer Amyx & Allan Rae, 2000. "A Way Forward for Japanese Agriculture," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 300, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Anderson, Kym, 1998. "Are resource-abundant economies disadvantaged?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(1), March.
    14. Maeda, Koushi & Suzuki, Xohuhiro & Kaiser, Harry M., 2001. "An Economic Evaluation Of The New Agricultural Trade Negotiations: A Nonlinear Imperfectly Competitive Spatial Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers 7231, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    15. Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Nin Pratt, Alejandro, 2006. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Crop, Ruminant and Non-Ruminant Production: Measurement and Forecasts," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Anonymous, 1998. "Grain Market Reform in China: Global Implications," Technical Reports 113816, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
    17. Harry X Wu & Christopher Findlay, 1997. "China's Grain Demand and Supply: Trade Implications," Chinese Economies Research Centre (CERC) Working Papers 1997-04, University of Adelaide, Chinese Economies Research Centre.
    18. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2000. "Rural-Urban Migration, Labor Mobility And Agricultural Trade Liberalization In China," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21727, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), June.
    20. David Ralston & Carolyn Egri & Charlotte Karam & Irina Naoumova & Narasimhan Srinivasan & Tania Casado & Yongjuan Li & Ruth Alas, 2015. "The triple-bottom-line of corporate responsibility: Assessing the attitudes of present and future business professionals across the BRICs," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 145-179, March.
    21. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asia-Pacific; Economic Projections; Food and Agriculture Markets; Global CGE Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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