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Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-wide Perspective

  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Martin, Will

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will pay for its food imports. The paper addresses this question by first reviewing existing food sector projections and then taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores the effects of slower global agricultural productivity growth and of slower economic growth in China. Several policy shocks are also examined. They include the entry of China (and hence Taiwan) into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the failure to fully abolish the bilateral quotas on textiles and clothing trade as promised under the Uruguay Round. A slow-down in farm productivity growth could be very costly to the world economy, as could slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries is shown to reduce East Asia’s industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China’s WTO membership would greatly benefit the economies of China and the world. It would boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand, not only by China, but also its densely populated neighbours with whom its intra- and inter-industry trade in manufactures would intensify.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1474.

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Date of creation: Sep 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1474
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  1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 1992. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521351058.
  2. Irene Trela & John Whalley, 1991. "Internal Quota Allocation Schemes and the Costs of the MFA," NBER Working Papers 3627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521580106.
  4. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  5. Lipsey, Robert E., 1994. "Quality change and other influences on measures of export prices of manufactured goods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1348, The World Bank.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
  7. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jefferson, Gary H. & Rawski, Thomas G. & Zheng, Yuxin, 1996. "Chinese Industrial Productivity: Trends, Measurement Issues, and Recent Developments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 146-180, October.
  9. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
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