IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis, Jeffrey D.
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Zhi Wang

Abstract

The Pacific Rim members of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group have different views about the role each should play in fostering further trade liberalization. But at the November 1994 APEC meetings in Bogor they committed themselves to forming an APEC free trade area. The authors explore: 1) the impact of such a free trade area on trade, welfare, and economic structure of the Pacific Rim economies and the European Union; 2) the implications of forming a partial free trade area, excluding such potential partners as China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies, or the United States; 3) whether an APEC free trade area provides more benefits than full trade liberalization that includes the European Union. They analyze these issues using a multicountry, computable general equilibrium model to simulate alternative liberalized trade scenarios. Their findings are as follows. Under the base-case scenario (in which all tariff and most nontariff barriers are removed among the APEC countries, China, Japan, ASEAN, the Asian newly industrializing economies (NIEs), and the United States): all APEC countries gain in GDP and the excluded European Union loses sligthly. Gains are greatest for the poorer countries, for whom trade externalities are more significant. Trade expands greatly, and although there is some trade diversion away from the European Union and the rest of the world, that is swamped by the creation of trade within the free trade area. The U.S.-Japan trade balance improves only slightly (by $1.4 billion), and the U.S.-China balance are much larger, suggesting that changes in sectoral protection make movements in particular bilateral trade balances nearly impossible to predict. When one economy is excluded: there are gains from making the free trade area as broad as possible. Omitting any one region (China, the United States, or the ASEAN 4) makes that region significantly worse off and lowers the gains for all other members as well. The Asian NIEs have the most to gain from broad membership. Excluding China reduces Asian NIE gains by about half, and excluding the United States yields even greater declines. Excluding the United States has the worst impact on all other potential members, greater than the effect of omitting China or the ASEAN 4. The European Union is largely unaffected by different versions of the APEC free trade area. Global (versus regional) liberalization: global liberalization that includes the European Union is the best outcome in terms of world GDP and welfare. And all countries gain more from global liberalization than they do from joining an APEC free trade area alone. Forming a regional free trade area may be politically easier than continued global liberalization, but there are economic incentives for all parties to expand on the completed GATT round.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Zhi Wang, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1467, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1995/06/01/000009265_3961019112656/Rendered/PDF/multi0page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaime de MELO & Sherman ROBINSON, 2015. "Product Differentiation And The Treatment Of Foreign Trade In Computable General Equilibrium Models Of Small Economies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 2, pages 21-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Richard Baldwin, 1989. "The Growth Effects of 1992," NBER Working Papers 3119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Do Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 283-287, May.
    5. Jaime de Melo & Sherman Robinson, 2015. "Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Modeling Developing Countries' Policies in General Equilibrium, chapter 3, pages 43-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Braga, Carlos A. Primo*Safadi, Raed*Yeats, Alexa, 1994. "NAFTA's Implications for East Asian exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1351, The World Bank.
    7. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-145, February.
    8. Julian M. Alston & Colin A. Carter & Richard Green & Daniel Pick, 1990. "Whither Armington Trade Models?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 455-467.
    9. Yoko Sazanami & Shujiro Urata & Hiroki Kawai, 1995. "Measuring the Costs of Protection in Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 32, January.
    10. Robinson, Sherman & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1999. "From stylized to applied models:: Building multisector CGE models for policy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-38.
    11. Brown, Drusilla K., 1987. "Tariffs, the terms of trade, and national product differentiation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 503-526.
    12. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947, Elsevier.
    13. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    14. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    15. Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Computable general equilibrium analysis of agricultural liberalization: Factor mobility and macro closure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 527-556.
    16. repec:fth:michin:311 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Hallett Andrew Hughes & Braga C. A. Primo, 1994. "The New Regionalism and the Threat of Protectionism," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 388-421, December.
    18. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
    19. Kilkenny, Maureen, 1991. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Agricultural Policies: Documentation of the 30-Sector FPGE GAMS Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278539, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Robinson, Sherman, 1992. "Labor Issues in a North American Free Trade Area," CUDARE Working Papers 198601, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    21. Corden, W.M., 1984. "The normative theory of international trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 63-130, Elsevier.
    22. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204.
    23. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy Lessons from Two-Sector Models," CUDARE Working Papers 198566, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    24. Venables, Anthony J., 1985. "Trade and trade policy with imperfect competition: The case of identical products and free entry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-19, August.
    25. Brown, D.K., 1992. "The Impact of a North American Free Trade Area: Applied General Equilibrium Models," Working Papers 311, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    26. Hanson, Kenneth & Robinson, Sherman & Tokarick, Stephen, 1989. "United States Adjustment in the 1990s: A CGE Anaylsis of Alternative Trade Strategies," CUDARE Working Papers 198496, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    27. Richard Green & Julian M. Alston, 1990. "Elasticities in AIDS Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 442-445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region with specific reference to preferential trade agreements - scenario and impact analysis," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 131-162, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    2. ADKINS Liwayway G. & GARBACCIO Richard F., 2010. "Simulating the Effects of the FTAA on Global Carbon Emissions: A General Equilibrium Analysis," EcoMod2003 330700000, EcoMod.
    3. Philip D. Adams & Mark Horridge & Brian Parmenter & Xiao-Guang Zhang, 1998. "Long-run Effects on China of APEC Trade Liberalisation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-130, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Hiro Lee & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 1999. "General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Liberalization in APEC Countries," Discussion Paper Series 103, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Wang, Zhi, 1997. "China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 17(2-3), pages 239-264, December.
    6. U-Primo E. Rodriguez, 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22694, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Xinshen Diao & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Scenarios for Trade Integration in the Americas," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 33-51.
    8. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    9. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 210-234, February.
    10. Lewis, Jeffrey D.*Robinson, Sherman, 1996. "Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1626, The World Bank.
    11. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2006. "Impact of switching production to bioenergy crops: The switchgrass example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 243-265, March.
    12. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa," TMD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Plummer, Michael G., 2006. "Toward Win-Win Regionalism in Asia: Issues and Challenges in Forming Efficient Trade Agreements," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 5, Asian Development Bank.
    14. Scott McDonald & Karen Thierfelder, 2005. "Impact of Switching Production to Bioenergy Crops: The Switchgrass Example January 2005," Working Papers 2005002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005.
    15. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    16. Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
    17. Coyle, William T. & Wang, Zhi, 1998. "Open Regionalism In Apec: Impacts On U.S. Agriculture And Trade," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Warwick J. McKibbin & K. K. Tang, 2000. "Trade and Financial Reform in China: Impacts on the World Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(8), pages 979-1003, August.
    19. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David W., 1998. "Prelude to the pacific century: Overview of the region, leading issues, and methodology," MPRA Paper 82339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang & Will Martin, 2002. "Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 3-33.
    21. Wang, Zhi, 1997. "The Impact of China and Taiwan Joining the World Trade Organization on U.S. and World Agricultural Trade: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Technical Bulletins 184382, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    22. Decaluwé, B. & Dumont, J.-C. & Mesplé-Somps, S. & Robichaud, V., 2000. "Union économique et mobilité des facteurs; le cas de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africain (UEMOA)," Cahiers de recherche 0009, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    23. Kym Anderson & Mari Pangestu, 1998. "Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 85-113.
    24. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2008. "Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2008-20, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul A. & Robinson, Sherman & De Paolis, Fernando, 1999. "Regional integration among the unequal: a CGE model of NAFTA and the Central American republics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 235-292.
    2. Lewis, Jeffrey D.*Robinson, Sherman, 1996. "Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1626, The World Bank.
    3. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul A. & Robinson, Sherman & Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1995. "Regional integration options for Central America and the Caribbean after NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-148.
    4. Jeffrey D. Lewis & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2003. "Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 156-206, June.
    5. Burfisher, Mary E. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2000. "Small countries and the case for regionalism vs. multilateralism," TMD discussion papers 54, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. McDonald, Scott & Kirsten, Johann F. & van Zyl, Johan, 1997. "A social accounting matrix for modeling agricultural policy reform in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(4), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Roberts, Barbara M. & Zolkiewski, Zbigniew, 1996. "Modelling income distribution in countries in transition: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 67-90, January.
    8. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Contribution of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling to Policy Formulation in Developing Countries," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 277-301, Elsevier.
    10. Scott McDonald & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2007. "Globe: A SAM Based Global CGE Model using GTAP Data," Departmental Working Papers 14, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    11. Filho, Leonardo Campos, 1998. "Unilateral Liberalisation and Mercosul: Implications for Resource Allocation," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 52(4), October.
    12. J. David Richardson, 1989. "Empirical Research on Trade Liberalization With Imperfect Competition: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 2883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 1999. "After the negotiations: assessing the impact of free trade agreements in Southern Africa," TMD discussion papers 46, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Emmanuel Athanassiou & Christos Kollias & Stavros Zografakis, 2002. "The Effects of Defence Spending Reductions: A CGE Estimation of the Foregone Peace Dividend in the Case of Greece," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 109-119.
    15. Karen Thierfelder & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Trade and Tradability: Exports, Imports, and Factor Markets in the Salter‐Swan Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 103-111, March.
    16. Bergman, Lars, 2005. "CGE Modeling of Environmental Policy and Resource Management," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1273-1306, Elsevier.
    17. Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Alternative Scenarios of U.S.-Mexico Integration: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," CUDARE Working Papers 198585, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    18. McDonald, Scott & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2006. "Impact of switching production to bioenergy crops: The switchgrass example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 243-265, March.
    19. Robinson, Sherman & Kilkenny, Maureen & Hanson, Kenneth, 1990. "The USDA/ERS Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of the United States," Staff Reports 278341, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. de Melo, Jaime & Tarr, David, 1990. "Do wage distortions justify protection in the U.S. auto and steel industries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 517, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Trade Policy; Transport and Trade Logistics; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Trade Policy; Trade and Regional Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.