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Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005

Author

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Dimaranan, Betina
  • Hertel, Thomas W
  • Martin, Will

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of key trade reforms likely to affect the APEC region over the next decade. It does so by taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to the year 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. The paper begins by showing that the empirical impact of implementing the Uruguay Round depends significantly on how China and Taiwan are treated. It then explores the market implications of increased economic growth in China, as well as several policy shocks. It is shown that increased industrial growth in China – due to China integrating more into the global economy – would be beneficial to the world, since it would boost industrialization in other Asian countries. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries, on the other hand, is shown to reduce East Asia’s industrialization and thereby slow the growth in this region’s net imports. Further MFN trade liberalization by APEC members, however, could add substantially to the growth and structural changes expected in the region and beyond over the next decade. The latter benefits are shown, though, to depend heavily on the inclusion of agriculture in the APEC reform, something that Northeast Asian countries have been reluctant to do.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W & Martin, Will, 1997. "Economic Growth and Policy Reform in the APEC Region: Trade and Welfare Implications by 2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 1605, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1605
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    2. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2012. "Agriculture and Food Security in Asia by 2030," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23309, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Rolf J. Langhammer & Matthias Lücke, 1999. "WTO Accession Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(6), pages 837-873, August.
    4. Bye, Brita & FæHn, Taran, 2011. "Promoting innovation and imitation in a small open economy: The role of human capital, R&D and trade," Conference papers 332158, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Huang, Jikun & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 443-456.
    6. Nigel Grimwade & David G. Mayes & Jiao Wang, 2011. "Estimating the Effects of Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume III, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Elbehri, Aziz & Leetmaa, Susan E., 2001. "How Significant Are Export Subsidies To Agricultural Trade? Trade And Welfare Implications Of Global Reforms," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20518, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    9. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "The changing geography of world trade: Projections to 2030," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 303-323.
    10. Aziz Elbehri & Thomas Hertel & Will Martin, 2003. "Estimating the Impact of WTO and Domestic Reforms on the Indian Cotton and Textile Sectors: a General‐Equilibrium Approach," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 343-359, August.
    11. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David, 2000. "Trade and Transmission of Endogenous Growth Effects: Japanese Economic Reform as an Externality for East Asian Economies," Conference papers 330892, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "Emerging Asia's Growth and Policy Developments: Implications for Indonesia's Economy and Trade," Conference papers 332298, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2015. "Implications for Indonesia of Asia's Rise in the Global Economy," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 69-94, April.
    14. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    15. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas, 2003. "Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 774-794, December.
    16. Kym Anderson, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-25, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-26.
    18. Anderson, Kym, 2000. "Agriculture, Developing Countries, And The WTO Millennium Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 2437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2000. "Rural-Urban Migration, Labor Mobility And Agricultural Trade Liberalization In China," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21727, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Anderson, Kym & Jha, Shikha & Nelgen, Signe & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Reexamining Policies for Food Security," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 301, Asian Development Bank.
    21. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Global food markets by 2030: What roles for farm TFP growth and trade policies?," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124192, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    22. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia?s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Kym Anderson, 1999. "The WTO Agenda for the New Millennium," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(1), pages 77-88, March.
    24. Bernard, Alain L. & Vielle, Marc, 2002. "Does Non Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the US Increase the Likelihood of Monopolistic Behavior by Russia in the Market of Tradable Permits?," Conference papers 330976, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    APEC; Asia-Pacific; Economic Projections; Global CGE Modelling; Uruguay Round;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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