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The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Timilsina, Govinda
  • Beghin, John C.
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
  • Mevel, Simon

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

Suggested Citation

  • Timilsina, Govinda & Beghin, John C. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 32206, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:32206
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    Keywords

    biofuels; ethanol; biodiesel; land use; food supply; food prices; CGE model; impacts;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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