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The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global Cge Assessment

  • Timilsina, Govinda
  • Beghin, John C.
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
  • Mevel, Simon

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 32206.

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Date of creation: 15 Dec 2010
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Publication status: Published in Agricultural Economics 2012, vol. 43 no. 3, pp. 315-332
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:32206
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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