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Left, right, left: income, learning and political dynamics

  • Morrow, John
  • Carter, Michael

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present. In contrast, under imperfect information, a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences occurs. Simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that imperfect information better accounts for the shift back to the left, and offers additional insights about political dynamics.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45020/1/MPRA_paper_45020.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45020.

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Date of creation: 23 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45020
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  1. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5 Elsevier.
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  3. Fong, Christina, 2001. "Social preferences, self-interest, and the demand for redistribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 225-246, November.
  4. Lybbert, Travis J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Desta, Solomon & Coppock, D. Layne, 2002. "Stochastic Wealth Dynamics And Risk Management Among A Poor Population," Working Papers 14736, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
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  12. Musgrove, Philip, 1979. "Permanent Household Income and Consumption in Urban South America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 355-68, June.
  13. Javier Santiso, 2007. "Latin America's Political Economy of the Possible: Beyond Good Revolutionaries and Free-Marketeers," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262693593, June.
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  16. repec:dgr:uvatin:20120043 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Fields, Gary S., 2007. "How much should we care about changing income inequality in the course of economic growth?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 577-585.
  18. Olken, Benjamin A., 2006. "Corruption and the costs of redistribution: Micro evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(4-5), pages 853-870, May.
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