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Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model

  • Anderson, Kym
  • Valenzuela, Ernesto
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage Model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and a poverty elasticities approach. It addresses two questions: To what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries would be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries would come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries – the majority of whom work on farms – would benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries would rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day would drop 3 percent globally.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52785
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Paper provided by World Bank in its series Agricultural Distortions Working Paper with number 52785.

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Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ags:wbadwp:52785
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.worldbank.org

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  1. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "The relative importance of global agricultural subsidies and market access," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3900, The World Bank.
  2. Malcolm, Gerard, 1998. "Adjusting Tax Rates in the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Technical Papers 315, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Bautista, Romeo M. & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn & Wobst, Peter, 1998. "Policy bias and agriculture: partial and general equilibrium measures," TMD discussion papers 25, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Henning Tarp Jensen & Sherman Robinson & Finn Tarp, 2004. "General Equilibrium Measures of Agricultural Policy Bias in Fifteen Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 04-25, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  5. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Multilateral, Regional, and Bilateral Trade-Policy Options for the United States and Japan," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0112, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "Do global trade distortions still harm developing country farmers ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3901, The World Bank.
  7. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  8. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 675-704, October.
  9. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Kym Anderson, 2009. "Alternative Agricultural Price Distortions for CGE Analysis of Developing Countries, 2004 and 1980-84," GTAP Research Memoranda 2925, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. D. Gale Johnson, 1987. "World Agriculture In Disarray Revisited," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 31(2), pages 142-153, 08.
  11. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2611, August.
  12. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
  13. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
  14. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank.
  15. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Valenzuela, Ernesto & Anderson, Kym, 2009. "Border Price and Export Demand Shocks for Developing Countries from Rest-of-World Trade Liberalization Using the Linkage Model," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52797, World Bank.
  16. Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Anderson, Kym, 2008. "General equilibrium effects of price distortions on global markets, farm incomes and welfare," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48630, World Bank.
  17. Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, William J. & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Methodology for Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48326, World Bank.
  18. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "The World Trade Organisation's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 1281-1304, 08.
  19. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Wong, Sara & Sandri, Damiano, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Ecuador," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 48394, World Bank.
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