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Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: WhatÂ’s at Stake for Developing Countries?


  • Kym Anderson

    () (World Bank)

  • Will Martin

    () (World Bank)

  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

    () (World Bank)


This paper provides new estimates of the global gains from multilateral trade reform and their distribution among developing countries in the presence of trade preferences. Particular attention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute the poorest households in developing countries but the most assisted in rich countries. The latest GTAP database (Version 6.05) and the World BankÂ’s LINKAGE model of the global economy are employed to examine the impact first of current merchandise trade barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible reform outcomes from the WTOÂ’s Doha Development Agenda. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of that region. Net farm incomes would all rise substantially in that and other developing country regions, thereby alleviating rural poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could move the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs, particularly on agricultural imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2005. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: WhatÂ’s at Stake for Developing Countries?," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-16, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2005-16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889.
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    11. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 108-139, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eggert, Håkan & Greaker, Mads, 2009. "Effects of Global Fisheries on Developing Countries Possibilities for Income and Threat of Depletion," Working Papers in Economics 393, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    2. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Contributions Of The Gatt/Wto To Global Economic Welfare: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 56-92, February.
    3. Nakgyoon Choi, 2010. "General Equilibrium Analysis of DDA Trade Liberalization : Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Trade Working Papers 23109, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "China, the WTO, and the Doha Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-02, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    6. Bouët, Antoine, 2006. "What can the poor expect from trade liberalization?: opening the "black box" of trade modeling," MTID discussion papers 93, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    8. repec:got:cegedp:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Agricultural Trade Policy Modelling: Insights from a Meta-Analysis of Doha Development Agenda Outcomes," Commissioned Papers 43466, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    10. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2007. "The Doha agenda and agricultural trade reform: the role of economic analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 77-87, December.
    11. repec:oup:revage:v:28:y:2006:i:2:p:168-194. is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007. "Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 67, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    13. James Scott, 2012. "Squeezing the state: tariff revenue, state capacity and the WTO’s Doha Round," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 16912, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
    14. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 168-194.
    15. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:04:y:2013:i:03:n:s1793993313500130 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gustavo HERNÁNDEZ, 2013. "Una reseña de los efectos del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011204, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.

    More about this item


    Trade policy reform; WTO; multilateral negotiations; computable general equilibrium; developing countries.;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade


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