IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v4y2008i4p395-420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions

Author

Listed:
  • Ernesto Valenzuela
  • Kym Anderson
  • Thomas Hertel

Abstract

The WTOÂ’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto Valenzuela & Kym Anderson & Thomas Hertel, 2008. "Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 395-420, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:395-420
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-007-0094-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10368-007-0094-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-007-0094-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tyers,Rod & Anderson,Kym, 2011. "Disarray in World Food Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521172318, September.
    2. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-1414, November.
    3. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    4. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-286, May.
    5. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
    6. Keeny, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2005. "GTAP-AGR: A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," Technical Papers 283422, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    8. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-141, June.
    9. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2014. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 10, pages 225-253, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Emini, Christian Arnault & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2005. "The poverty impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : the role of tax policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3746, The World Bank.
    11. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2006. "WTO's Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 5567, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bernard Hoekman, 2000. "The next round of services negotiations: identifying priorities and options," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Jul), pages 31-52.
    13. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    14. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(4), pages 626-670, December.
    15. Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models," Staff Working Papers 0601, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    16. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 168-194.
    17. Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2007. "Assessing Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 383-397.
    18. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round [Trade in Manufactures, the Outcome of the Uruguay Round and Developing Country Interests]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 350-391.
    19. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    20. Carsten Fink & Aaditya Mattoo & Ileana Cristina Neagu, 2002. "Trade in International Maritime Services: How Much Does Policy Matter?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(1), pages 81-108, June.
    21. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    22. Claessens, Stijn & Glaessner, Tom, 1998. "The internationalization of financial services in Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1911, The World Bank.
    23. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2002. "Estimating the poverty impacts of trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2790, The World Bank.
    24. Winters, L Alan, 2000. "Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What Are The Links?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Chen, Shaohua & Ravallion, Martin, 2003. "Household welfare impacts of China's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3040, The World Bank.
    26. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-973, October.
    27. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7411.
    28. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:262-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Deardoff, A.V. & Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M., 1995. "Modelling Multilateral Trade Liberalization in Services," Working Papers 378, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Doha Merchandise Trade Reform: What Is at Stake for Developing Countries?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 169-195.
    2. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 108-139, April.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    4. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6889.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Estimating Effects of Price-Distorting Policies Using Alternative Distortions Databases," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 877-931, Elsevier.
    6. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas W., 2006. "Poverty Vulnerability and Trade Policy: Are the Likely Impacts Discernable?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21397, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Keeney, Roman & Beckman, Jayson, 2009. "WTO negotiations on agriculture and the distributional impacts for US rice farm households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, February.
    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2009. "Simulating the U.S. recession," Conference papers 331862, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2006. "Distortions to World Trade: Impacts on Agricultural Markets and Farm Incomes," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 168-194.
    10. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2004. "Global Analysis of Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Assessing Model Validity," Conference papers 331270, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Romain Perez & Mustapha Sadni Jallab, 2009. "Preference erosion and market access liberalization: the African dilemma in multilateral negotiations on agriculture," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(2), pages 277-292, July.
    12. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    13. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    14. Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2004. "Rethinking Agricultural Domestic Support under the World Trade Organization," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-bp43, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    15. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52785, World Bank.
    16. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.
    17. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2007. "The Doha agenda and agricultural trade reform: the role of economic analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 77-87, December.
    18. Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.
    19. Beckman, Jayson & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wallace, 2011. "Validating energy-oriented CGE models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 799-806, September.
    20. Rivera, Sandra A. & Tsigas, Marinos E., 2005. "How does China’s growth affect India? An Economywide Analysis," Conference papers 331359, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy reform; WTO; Agricultural trade; Computable general equilibrium; C68; F17; Q17;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:395-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.