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Impacts of trade reform: sensitivity of model results to key assumptions

  • Ernesto Valenzuela

    ()

  • Kym Anderson
  • Thomas Hertel

The WTOÂ’s Doha Development Agenda has generated demand for estimates of the potential economic consequences of global trade reform. Recent improvements in the GTAP dataset have provided a much better representation of tariff restrictions as of 2001. However, despite its use by most global trade modelers, substantial differences in results emerge from different computable general equilibrium exercises. To help understand these differences, this paper examines the sensitivity of full global and regional trade liberalization results from the GTAP model, using the GTAP version 6.1 database, to different assumptions about factor mobility, fiscal neutrality, macro-economic closure, and trade (Armington) elasticities.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10368-007-0094-4
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Article provided by Springer in its journal International Economics and Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (February)
Pages: 395-420

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Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:4:y:2008:i:4:p:395-420
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=111059

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  1. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November.
  2. Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela, 2007. "WTOÂ’s Doha Cotton Initiative: A Tale of Two Issues," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-06, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  4. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr & Angelo Gurgel, 2004. "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 276, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Would Multilateral Trade Reform Benefit Sub-Saharan Africans?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Distortions to world trade: impacts on agricultural markets and farm incomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3736, The World Bank.
  8. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
  9. Timothy J. Kehoe & Clemente Polo & Ferran Sancho, 1994. "An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 480, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
  11. Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models," Staff Working Papers 0601, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
  12. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521351058 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521172318 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Reimer, Jeff, 2005. "Assessing Global CGE Model Validity Using Agricultural Price Volatility," GTAP Working Papers 1875, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  15. Joseph Francois & Hans Van Meijl & Frank Van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
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