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Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania : past volatility and future climate change

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  • Ahmed , Syud Amer
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Martin, William J.

Abstract

Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners'usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.

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  • Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 2012. "Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania : past volatility and future climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6132, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6132
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    2. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    3. Hertel, Thomas W., 2013. "Land, Environment and Climate: Contributing to the Global Public Good," WIDER Working Paper Series 107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "Economic Development under Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 369-377, August.
    5. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Douglas Paton & Jonatan A. Lassa & Gopal Datt Bhatta & Kerstin K. Zander, 2020. "Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3213-3237, September.
    6. Mintewab Bezabih & Remidius Ruhinduka & Mare Sarr, 2016. "Climate change perception and system of rice intensification (SRI) impact on dispersion and downside risk: a moment approximation approach," GRI Working Papers 256, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    7. Sarr, Mare & Bezabih Ayele, Mintewab & Kimani, Mumbi E. & Ruhinduka, Remidius, 2021. "Who benefits from climate-friendly agriculture? The marginal returns to a rainfed system of rice intensification in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Chen, Bowen & Villoria, Nelson B., 2018. "Food Price Variability and Import Dependence: A Country Panel Analysis," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274285, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Porteous, Obie, 2017. "Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of African maize," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 17-26.
    11. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    12. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Douglas Paton & Jonatan A. Lassa & Gopal Datt Bhatta & Kerstin K. Zander, 0. "Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 0, pages 1-25.
    13. Makombe, Wilfred & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2016. "The Effects Of Tanzanian Maize Export Bans On Producers’ Welfare And Food Security," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235499, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Keywords

    Climate Change Economics; Economic Theory&Research; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Science of Climate Change; Trade Policy;
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