Agriculture and trade opportunities for Tanzania : past volatility and future climate change
Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners'usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.
|Date of creation:||01 Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2009.
"Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Asia,"
World Bank Publications,
The World Bank, number 2611, June.
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
GTAP Working Papers
1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009.
"Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania,"
2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Ahmed , Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel , Thomas W. & Lobell, David B. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5117, The World Bank.
- Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Ivanic, Maros & Winters, Alan, 2007.
"Why Isn’t the Doha Development Agenda More Poverty Friendly?,"
GTAP Working Papers
2292, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2015. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 18, pages 375-391 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2009. "Why Isn't the Doha Development Agenda more Poverty Friendly?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 543-559, November.
- Jayne, Thomas S. & Chapoto, Antony & Minde, Isaac J. & Donovan, Cynthia, 2008. "The 2008/09 Food Price and Food Security Situation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for Immediate and Longer Run Responses," Food Security International Development Working Papers 54556, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7411, June.
- Tobey, James A. & Reilly, John M. & Kane, Sally, 1992. "Economic Implications Of Global Climate Change For World Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(01), July.
- Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.
- Noah Diffenbaugh & Martin Scherer, 2011. "Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 615-624, August.
- Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.