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Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade

  • Reimer, Jeffrey J.
  • Li, Man

We examine how changes in yield variability affect the welfare of cereal grain and oilseed buyers and producers around the world. We simulate trade patterns and welfare for 21 countries with a Ricardian trade model that incorporates bilateral trade costs and crop yield distributions. The model shows that world trade volumes would need to increase substantially if crop yield variability were to rise. Net welfare effects, however, are moderate so long as countries do not resort to policies that inhibit trade, such as export restrictions or measures to promote self-sufficiency in crops. Low-income countries suffer the most from increases in yield variability, due to higher bilateral trade costs and lower-than-average productivity.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55543
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Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:55543
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.narea.org/

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  1. Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
  2. Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-12, May.
  3. Daniel G. Hallstrom, 2004. "Interannual Climate Variation, Climate Prediction, and Agricultural Trade: the Costs of Surprise versus Variability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 441-455, 08.
  4. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  5. Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000. "Trade Liberalization As A Vehicle For Adapting To Global Warming," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
  6. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
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