Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade
We examine how changes in yield variability affect the welfare of cereal grain and oilseed buyers and producers around the world. We simulate trade patterns and welfare for 21 countries with a Ricardian trade model that incorporates bilateral trade costs and crop yield distributions. The model shows that world trade volumes would need to increase substantially if crop yield variability were to rise. Net welfare effects, however, are moderate so long as countries do not resort to policies that inhibit trade, such as export restrictions or measures to promote self-sufficiency in crops. Low-income countries suffer the most from increases in yield variability, due to higher bilateral trade costs and lower-than-average productivity.
Volume (Year): 38 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.narea.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
- Daniel G. Hallstrom, 2004. "Interannual Climate Variation, Climate Prediction, and Agricultural Trade: the Costs of Surprise versus Variability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 441-455, 08.
- Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, 2005.
"General Equilibrium Analysis of the Eaton-Kortum Model of International Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
11764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alvarez, Fernando & Lucas, Robert Jr., 2007. "General equilibrium analysis of the Eaton-Kortum model of international trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1726-1768, September.
- Randhir, Timothy O. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2000.
"Trade Liberalization As A Vehicle For Adapting To Global Warming,"
Agricultural and Resource Economics Review,
Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), October.
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Timothy O. Randhir, 1999. "Trade Liberalization as a Vehicle for Adapting to Global Warming," GTAP Working Papers 398, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Reilly, John & Hohmann, Neil, 1993. "Climate Change and Agriculture: The Role of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 306-12, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:55543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.