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Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Syud Amer Ahmed
  • Noah S. Diffenbaugh
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • William J. Martin

Abstract

Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partners'usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.
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Suggested Citation

  • Syud Amer Ahmed & Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & William J. Martin, 2012. "Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 429-447, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:429-447
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2012.00672.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Song Tao, 2025. "The Effect of Climate Risk on China‘s Agri-food Trade," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 12(59), pages 205-218.
    3. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "Economic Development under Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 369-377, August.
    4. Christian Estmann, 2023. "Trade liberalisation, market behaviour and food security: Evidence from Tanzania," DERG working paper series 23-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    6. Aragie, Emerta & Pauw, Karl & Pernechele, Valentina, 2018. "Achieving food security and industrial development in Malawi: Are export restrictions the solution?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Makombe, Wilfred & Kropp, Jaclyn D., "undated". "The Effects Of Tanzanian Maize Export Bans On Producers’ Welfare And Food Security," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235499, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Thomas W. Hertel, 2013. "Land, Environment and Climate: Contributing to the Global Public Good," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Paul Brenton & Vicky Chemutai & Mari Pangestu, 2022. "Trade and food security in a climate change‐impacted world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 580-591, July.
    10. Chen, Bowen & Villoria, Nelson B., "undated". "Food Price Variability and Import Dependence: A Country Panel Analysis," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274285, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    12. Porteous, Obie, 2017. "Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of African maize," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 17-26.
    13. Hertel, Thomas W., 2013. "Land, Environment and Climate: Contributing to the Global Public Good," WIDER Working Paper Series 107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki & Douglas Paton & Jonatan A. Lassa & Gopal Datt Bhatta & Kerstin K. Zander, 2020. "Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3213-3237, September.
    15. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    16. Mintewab Bezabih & Remidius Ruhinduka & Mare Sarr, 2016. "Climate change perception and system of rice intensification (SRI) impact on dispersion and downside risk: a moment approximation approach," GRI Working Papers 256, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    17. Sarr, Mare & Bezabih Ayele, Mintewab & Kimani, Mumbi E. & Ruhinduka, Remidius, 2021. "Who benefits from climate-friendly agriculture? The marginal returns to a rainfed system of rice intensification in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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