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Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:

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  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Kennedy, Adam
  • Mabiso, Athur
  • Pradesha, Angga

Abstract

We study the impact of export bans in Tanzania using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that although maize is an important food crop in Tanzania, its contribution to food price inflation is rather limited, and that banning cross-border maize exports lowers the national food price index by only 0.6-2.4 percent compared with the free-export scenario. The benefits of lower prices are captured primarily by urban households, but maize producer prices decrease by 7-26 percent, depending on the region. We also find that the export ban decreases the wage rate for low-skilled labor and the returns to land, while returns to nonagricultural capital and wage rate for the skilled labor increase, further hurting poor rural households and thus increasing poverty for the country as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Kennedy, Adam & Mabiso, Athur & Pradesha, Angga, 2013. "Economywide impact of maize export bans on agricultural growth and household welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis:," IFPRI discussion papers 1287, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benson, Todd & Randriamamonjy, Josee & Fang, Peixun & Nyange, David & Thurlow, James & Diao, Xinshen, 2017. "Prospects for the Sectoral Transformation of the Rural Economy in Tanzania: A Review of the Evidence," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 270634, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    2. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
    3. Kuzminov Mykola, 2017. "Determination of agricultural export features in developing countries," Technology audit and production reserves, 5(37) 2017, Socionet;Technology audit and production reserves, vol. 5(5(37)), pages 49-54.
    4. Cochrane, Nancy & D'Souza, Anna, 2015. "Measuring Access to Food in Tanzania: A Food Basket Approach," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 02, pages 1-13, March.
    5. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
    6. Makombe, Wilfred & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2016. "The Effects Of Tanzanian Maize Export Bans On Producers’ Welfare And Food Security," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235499, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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