IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6858.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The price is not always right : on the impacts of (commodity) prices on households (and countries)

Author

Listed:
  • Lederman, Daniel
  • Porto, Guido

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the impact of once-and-for-all changes in commodity prices and other prices on household welfare. It begins with a collection of stylized facts related to commodities based on household survey data from Latin America and Africa. The data uncover strong commodity dependence in both continents: households typically allocate a large fraction of their budget to commodities and they often depend on commodities to earn their income. This income and expenditure dependency suggests sizable impacts and adjustments following commodity-price shocks. The paper explores these effects with a review of the literature. It studies consumption and income responses, labor-market responses, and spillovers across sectors. It ends up providing evidence on the relative magnitudes of various mechanisms through which commodity prices affect household (and national) welfare in developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lederman, Daniel & Porto, Guido, 2014. "The price is not always right : on the impacts of (commodity) prices on households (and countries)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6858, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2014/05/06/000158349_20140506112948/Rendered/PDF/WPS6858.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deaton, Angus, 1987. "Estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities from household survey data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 7-30.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    5. Porto, Guido G., 2005. "Informal export barriers and poverty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 447-470, July.
    6. Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Porto, Guido, 2014. "Pro-poor trade policy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 252-265.
    7. Hanan G. Jacoby, 2016. "Food Prices, Wages, And Welfare In Rural India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 159-176, January.
    8. Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2002. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(3), pages 397-423, December.
    9. Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Anna Fruttero & Phillippe G. Leite & Leonardo R. Lucchetti, 2013. "Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare: Evidence from Brazil in 2008," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 151-176, February.
    10. Mr. Robert Gillingham & David Locke Newhouse & Mr. David Coady & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Moataz El-Said & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2006. "The Magnitude and Distribution of Fuel Subsidies: Evidence from Bolivia, Ghana, Jordan, Mali, and Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2006/247, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Irene Brambilla & Guido G. Porto, 2011. "Market structure, outgrower contracts, and farm output. Evidence from cotton reforms in Zambia," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 740-766, December.
    12. Maertens, Miet & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2009. "Trade, Standards, and Poverty: Evidence from Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 161-178, January.
    13. Bob Baulch, 1997. "Transfer Costs, Spatial Arbitrage, and Testing for Food Market Integration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 477-487.
    14. Richard J. Sexton & Catherine L. Kling & Hoy F. Carman, 1991. "Market Integration, Efficiency of Arbitrage, and Imperfect Competition: Methodology and Application to U.S. Celery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 568-580.
    15. Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-585, July.
    16. Heltberg, R. & Tarp, F., 2002. "Agricultural supply response and poverty in Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 103-124, April.
    17. David de Ferranti & Guillermo E. Perry & William Foster & Daniel Lederman & Alberto Valdés, 2005. "Beyond the City: The Rural Contribution to Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7328.
    18. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
    19. Porto, Guido G., 2006. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
    20. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    21. Deininger, Klaus & Olinto, Pedro, 2000. "Why liberalization alone has not improved agricultural productivity in Zambia : the role of asset ownership and working capital constraints," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2302, The World Bank.
    22. Xavier Cirera & Channing Arndt, 2008. "Measuring the impact of road rehabilitation on spatial market efficiency in maize markets in Mozambique," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(1), pages 17-28, July.
    23. Sarah Baird & Jed Friedman & Norbert Schady, 2011. "Aggregate Income Shocks and Infant Mortality in the Developing World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 847-856, August.
    24. Deaton, Angus, 1988. "Quality, Quantity, and Spatial Variation of Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 418-430, June.
    25. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2004. "Trade, Inequality, and Poverty: What Do We Know? Evidence from Recent Trade Liberalization Episodes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 10593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    27. Boyce, James K & Ravallion, Martin, 1991. "A Dynamic Econometric Model of Agricultural Wage Determination in Bangladesh," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(4), pages 361-376, November.
    28. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2006. "Poverty and the WTO : Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7411.
    29. Nigel Key & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain De Janvry, 2000. "Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-259.
    30. Ann Harrison & John McLaren & Margaret McMillan, 2011. "Recent Perspectives on Trade and Inequality," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 261-289, September.
    31. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    32. Daniel Lederman, 2013. "International trade and inclusive growth: a primer," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 88-112, April.
    33. Angus Deaton, 1991. "Price Elasticities from Survey Data: Extensions and Indonesian Results," International Economic Association Series, in: Marc Nerlove (ed.), Issues in Contemporary Economics, chapter 10, pages 253-283, Palgrave Macmillan.
    34. Benjamin, Dwayne, 1992. "Household Composition, Labor Markets, and Labor Demand: Testing for Separation in Agricultural Household Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 287-322, March.
    35. repec:lic:licosd:17706 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Christopher B. Barrett & Paul A. Dorosh, 1996. "Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 656-669.
    37. Arze del Granado, Francisco Javier & Coady, David & Gillingham, Robert, 2012. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2234-2248.
    38. Mellor, John W & Johnston, Bruce F, 1984. "The World Food Equation: Interrelations among Development, Employment, and Food Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 531-574, June.
    39. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    40. Marcel Fafchamps, 1992. "Cash Crop Production, Food Price Volatility, and Rural Market Integration in the Third World," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 90-99.
    41. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-1417, November.
    42. Cadot, Olivier & Dutoit, Laure & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2010. "Barriers to Exit from Subsistence Agriculture," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1014, CEPREMAP.
    43. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
    44. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
    45. Budd, John W, 1993. "Changing Food Prices and Rural Welfare: A Nonparametric Examination of the Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 587-603, April.
    46. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, M. & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behavior with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explain," CUDARE Working Papers 198579, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    47. Albert Park & Hehui Jin & Scott Rozelle & Jikun Huang, 2002. "Market Emergence and Transition: Arbitrage, Transaction Costs, and Autarky in China's Grain Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 67-82.
    48. Sahn, David E & Sarris, Alexander H, 1991. "Structural Adjustment and the Welfare of Rural Smallholders: A Comparative Analysis from Sub-Saharan Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 5(2), pages 259-289, May.
    49. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/202, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Research papers & Policy papers on Trade Dynamics and Policies 1706, Policy Center for the New South.
    2. Lugo, María Ana & Garriga, Santiago & Puig, Jorge, 2022. "Effects of food prices on poverty: The case of Paraguay, a food exporter and a non-fully urbanized country," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 37, pages 7-43, Mayo.
    3. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Research papers & Policy papers on Economic Trends and Policies 1727, Policy Center for the New South.
    4. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Policy briefs on Trade Dynamics and Policies 1706, Policy Center for the New South.
    5. Tadesse Kuma & Mekdim Dereje & Kalle Hirvonen & Bart Minten, 2019. "Cash Crops and Food Security: Evidence from Ethiopian Smallholder Coffee Producers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(6), pages 1267-1284, June.
    6. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Policy briefs 1744, Policy Center for the New South.
    7. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply," WIDER Working Paper Series 016, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Policy briefs on Agriculture Markets, Policies and Food Security 1706, Policy Center for the New South.
    9. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Research papers & Policy papers on Agriculture Markets, Policies and Food Security 1706, Policy Center for the New South.
    10. Marianne Fay & Stephane Hallegatte & Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Julie Rozenberg & Ulf Narloch & Tom Kerr, 2015. "Decarbonizing Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21842.
    11. Chauvin, Nicolas & Porto, Guido & Mulangu, Francis, 2015. "Agricultural Prices, Household Wellbeing and Poverty Alleviation in Tanzania: The Role of Agricultural Supply Chains and Household Constraints," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211569, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Wang, Bei & Qian, Xuefeng & Li, Ying & Cao, Jia, 2024. "Pro-poor consumption effects of trade liberalization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Nicolas Depetris-Chauvin & Guido Porto, 2014. "Agricultural Supply Chains and Farmers Constraints: Welfare Impacts in ECOWAS Countries," Working Papers 2014-20, CEPII research center.
    14. Will Martin, 2017. "Agricultural Trade and Food Security," Policy briefs on Economic Trends and Policies 1727, Policy Center for the New South.
    15. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply: Evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido, 2016. "Trade, Poverty Eradication, and the Sustainable Development Goals," ADBI Working Papers 629, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Depetris Chauvin, Nicolas & Porto, Guido G., 2011. "Market Competition in Export Cash Crops and Farm Income," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126159, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Lugo, María Ana & Garriga, Santiago & Puig, Jorge, 2022. "Effects of food prices on poverty: The case of Paraguay, a food exporter and a non-fully urbanized country," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 37, pages 7-43, Mayo.
    4. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    6. Hanan G. Jacoby, 2016. "Food Prices, Wages, And Welfare In Rural India," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 159-176, January.
    7. Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Porto, Guido, 2014. "Pro-poor trade policy in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 252-265.
    8. Charles Ackah, & Simon Appleton, 2007. "Food Price Changes and Consumer Welfare in Ghana in the 1990s," Discussion Papers 07/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    9. L. Alan Winters & Antonio Martuscelli, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: What Have We Learned in a Decade?," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 493-512, October.
    10. G. Jacoby , Hanan & Dasgupta, Basab, 2014. "Household Exposure to Food Price Shocks in Rural Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(1-2), pages 83-100, March-Jun.
    11. Antonio Martuscelli, 2017. "Analysing the Impact of Price Shocks in Rural Economies: Do Household Responses Matter?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(9), pages 1518-1534, September.
    12. Rita Motzigkeit Gonzalez, 2016. "Welfare effects of changed prices The “Tortilla Crisis" revisited," Working Papers 167, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    13. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Thomas W. Hertel, 2006. "A Survey of Findings on the Poverty Impacts of Agricultural Trade Liberalization," The Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26.
    15. Digvijay S. Negi, 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers, and household welfare evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-006, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Dawe, David & Maltsoglou, Irini, 2014. "Marketing margins and the welfare analysis of food price shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 50-55.
    18. Sakai, Yoko & Estudillo, Jonna P. & Fuwa, Nobuhiko & Higuchi, Yuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2012. "Do Natural Disasters Affect the Poor Disproportionately? The Case of Typhoon Milenyo in the Rural Philippines," PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series 31, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Han, Jun & Liu, Runjuan & Ural Marchand, Beyza & Zhang, Junsen, 2016. "Market structure, imperfect tariff pass-through, and household welfare in Urban China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 220-232.
    20. Balat, Jorge & Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido, 2009. "Realizing the gains from trade: Export crops, marketing costs, and poverty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 21-31, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markets and Market Access; Economic Theory&Research; Emerging Markets; Labor Policies; Access to Markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.