IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform

  • Thomas Hertel
  • Jeffrey Reimer

Quantifying how international trade affects poverty in developing countries is currently an area of intense research activity. This paper surveys the developments taking place, identifies four major methodological groupings, and summarizes preliminary findings from this literature. Methodologies currently used include 'bottom-up' approaches based on detailed household expenditure data, and 'top-down' approaches based on national accounts data. The survey's general conclusion is that any analysis of trade and poverty needs to be informed by both perspectives, and indeed, an increasing number of studies do so in what can be labelled 'micro-macro' synthesis. Future work should be directed towards improving the treatment of factor markets, domestic marketing costs, taxes and transfer payments, as well as devoting more attention to the reconciliation of household survey with national accounts data.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09638190500372404
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development.

Volume (Year): 14 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 377-405

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:4:p:377-405
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RJTE20

Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RJTE20

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira & Horridge, Mark, 2005. "The Doha Round, poverty, and regional inequality in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3701, The World Bank.
  2. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Bourguignon, F. & De Melo, J. & Suwa, A., 1990. "Distributional Effects of Adjustment Policies: Simulations for Two Archetype Economies," DELTA Working Papers 90-31, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  4. Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank.
  5. BUSSOLO Maurizio & LAY Jann, . "Globalization and Poverty Changes in Colombia," EcoMod2003 330700029, EcoMod.
  6. Lipton, Michael & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Poverty and policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1130, The World Bank.
  7. Porto, Guido G., 2003. "Trade reforms, market access, and poverty in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3135, The World Bank.
  8. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
  9. J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04.
  10. Coxhead, Ian A. & Warr, Peter G., 1995. "Does Technical Progress In Agriculture Alleviate Poverty? A Philippine Case Study," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 39(01), April.
  11. Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  12. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
  13. Porto, Guido G., 2006. "Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 140-160, September.
  14. William R. Cline, 2004. "Trade Policy and Global Poverty," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 379, May.
  15. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001. "Growth is good for the poor," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2587, The World Bank.
  16. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2002. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization," GTAP Working Papers 1163, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  17. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr,David & Gurgel, Angelo, 2003. "Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3051, The World Bank.
  18. Ivanic, Maros, 2004. "Reconciliation of the GTAP and Household Survey Data," GTAP Research Memoranda 1408, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  19. C. Arndt & H. T. Jensen & S. Robinson & F. Tarp, 2000. "Marketing Margins and Agricultural Technology in Mozambique," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 121-137.
  20. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1988. "Macroeconomic adjustment and income distribution : Alternative models applied to two economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 23-44, July.
  21. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2001. "Trade, growth, and poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2615, The World Bank.
  22. Charles L. Ballard & Don Fullerton & John B. Shoven & John Whalley, 1985. "Introduction to "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation"," NBER Chapters, in: A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation, pages 1-5 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. James Levinsohn & Steven Berry & Jed Friedman, 1999. "Impacts of the Indonesian Economic Crisis: Price Changes and the Poor," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 249, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  24. Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2001. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A 'Rapid Response' Methodology," Working Papers 482, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  25. Minot, Nicholas & Goletti, Francesco, 2000. "Rice market liberalization and poverty in Viet Nam:," Research reports 114, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  26. Peter Warr, 2005. "Food policy and poverty in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(4), pages 429-451, December.
  27. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2004. "Gainers and losers from trade reform in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3368, The World Bank.
  28. Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-85, July.
  29. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
  30. John Cockburn, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Development and Comp Systems 0409012, EconWPA.
  31. McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
  32. Ballard, Charles L. & Fullerton, Don & Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226036335, May.
  33. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Morrisson, Christian, 1991. "Poverty and income distribution during adjustment : issues and evidence from the OECD project," Policy Research Working Paper Series 810, The World Bank.
  34. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, 07.
  35. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  36. Francois Bourguignon & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15090, March.
  37. Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 1999. "Reconciling household surveys and national accounts data using a cross entropy estimation method:," TMD discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  38. Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22000, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  39. Kuiper, Marijke & van Tongeren, Frank, 2005. "Growing together or growing apart ? a village level study of the impact of the Doha Round on rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3696, The World Bank.
  40. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Lant Pritchett, 2003. "Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, 09.
  41. Thomas W. Hertel & Will Martin, 2000. "Liberalising Agriculture and Manufactures in a Millennium Round:Implications for Developing Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(04), pages 455-469, 04.
  42. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586, March.
  43. Dorosh, Paul A. & Sahn, David E., 2000. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomic Adjustment on Poverty in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 753-776, November.
  44. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Tarr, David G, 1997. "Quantifying the Uruguay Round," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1405-30, September.
  45. Bautista, Romeo M. & Thomas, Marcelle, 1997. "Income effects of alternative trade policy adjustments on Philippine rural households: a general equilibrium analysis," TMD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  46. Ravallion, Martin & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "The impact on poverty of food pricing reforms: A welfare analysis for Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-299.
  47. Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2001. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of Mexico's agricultural policy reforms," TMD discussion papers 65, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  48. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank.
  49. Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel & John A.L. Cranfield & Maros Ivanic, 2003. "Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Brazil and Chile," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 201-233.
  50. de Janvry, Alain & Fafchamps, Marcel & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1991. "Peasant Household Behaviour with Missing Markets: Some Paradoxes Explained," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1400-417, November.
  51. Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2005. "Incorporating commodity stockholding into a general equilibrium model of the global economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 646-664, July.
  52. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2005. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1057-1071, 08.
  53. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  54. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Wahba, Sadek & Whalley, John, 1994. "Poverty-Reducing Targeting Programmes: A General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 3(2), pages 309-38, October.
  55. Bautista, Romeo M. & Thomas, Marcelle, 1997. "Income Effects of Alternative Policy Trade Adjustments on Philippine Rural Households: A General Equilibrium Analysis," 1997 Conference, August 10-16, 1997, Sacramento, California 197068, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  56. Benjamin, Dwayne, 1992. "Household Composition, Labor Markets, and Labor Demand: Testing for Separation in Agricultural Household Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 287-322, March.
  57. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
  58. Fofack, Hippolyte & Monga, Celestin & Tuluy, Hasan, 2001. "Household welfare and poverty dynamics in Burkina Faso : empirical evidence from household surveys," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2590, The World Bank.
  59. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
  60. Bourguignon, Francois & de Melo, Jaime & Suwa, Akiko, 1991. "Distributional Effects of Adjustment Policies: Simulations for Archetype Economies in Africa and Latin America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 5(2), pages 339-66, May.
  61. Geoffrey J. Bannister, 2001. "International Trade and Poverty Alleviation," IMF Working Papers 01/54, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:14:y:2005:i:4:p:377-405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.