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Income effects of alternative trade policy adjustments on Philippine rural households: a general equilibrium analysis


  • Bautista, Romeo M.
  • Thomas, Marcelle


Three types of trade policy adjustments to deal with an unsustainable current account deficit are examined in this paper for their economywide income and equity effects, based on the results of simulation experiments using a CGE model of the Philippine economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) expectably decreases with import rationing and less markedly, with the imposition of a general import surtax; by contrast, adjustment through the reduction of tariffs leads to a larger GDP. The latter result, however, is counterbalanced by a substantial loss in government income. With respect to the distribution of income gains (and losses), the additional market distortions and rent-seeking that accompany the implementation of import rationing heavily discriminate in favor of Metro Manila households, whose average income is the highest among the five household groups distinguished in the model. Moving to a general import surtax represents an improvement in that non-Metro Manila households are penalized less. However, these first two policy options are deemed inferior to tariff liberalization which yields larger income benefits to small-farm and "other rural" households relative to the more affluent Metro Manila, other urban, and large-farm households.

Suggested Citation

  • Bautista, Romeo M. & Thomas, Marcelle, 1997. "Income effects of alternative trade policy adjustments on Philippine rural households: a general equilibrium analysis," TMD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:22

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-549, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2002. "Estimating the poverty impacts of trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2790, The World Bank.
    2. Rodriguez, U-Primo E., 2007. "State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 20(1).
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, July.
    4. Obeng, Camara Kwasi, 2014. "Impact of import liberalisation on poverty: a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis for Ghana," MPRA Paper 58182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mbabazi, Jennifer, 2002. "A CGE Analysis of the Short-run Welfare Effects of Tariff Liberalisation in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Bittencourt, MaurĂ­cio Vaz Lobo & Kraybill, David S. & Larson, Donald W., 2006. "Consequences Of Trade Liberalization On Poverty And Income Distribution In Brazil," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21128, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.


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