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Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round

  • Bussolo, Maurizio
  • Lay, Jann
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals'labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3833.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3833
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  1. Verner, Dorte, 2004. "Making the poor count takes more than counting the poor : A quick poverty assessment of the state of Bahia, Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3216, The World Bank.
  2. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav, 1999. "When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from the diverse experiences of India's states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2263, The World Bank.
  3. Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 1999. "Reconciling household surveys and national accounts data using a cross entropy estimation method:," TMD discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Maurizio Bussolo & Jann Lay, 2003. "Globalisation and Poverty Changes in Colombia," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
  5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. François Bourguignon & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2002. "Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 516, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Ravallion, Martin & Shaohua Chen, 2001. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2666, The World Bank.
  8. Barrett, Christopher B., 2003. "Rural Poverty Dynamics: Development Policy Implications," Working Papers 127243, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  9. Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Growth, inequality, and poverty : looking beyond averages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2558, The World Bank.
  10. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Lanjouw, Peter & Neri, Marcelo Côrtes, 2003. "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil Using Multiple Data Sources," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(1), January.
  11. Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 1999. "Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2171, The World Bank.
  12. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2005. "Uganda: No more pro-poor growth?," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 31, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  13. Kappel, Robert & Lay, Jann & Steiner, Susan, 2005. "Uganda: No more pro-poor growth?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3504, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  14. repec:zbw:ifwkie:3715 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
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