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The Long-Awaited Rise of the Middle Class in Latin America Is Finally Happening

Listed author(s):
  • Bussolo, Maurizio

    ()

    (World Bank)

  • Maliszewska, Maryla

    (World Bank)

  • Murard, Elie

    ()

    (IZA)

In many developing countries, the supply of skilled workers is likely to continue to be stronger than demand, and this should drive down the skill premium and reduce inequality. Within the limitations of any exercise based on simulations, this paper finds that the recently observed reduction in inequality in Latin America may continue. Building on counterfactual scenarios projecting economic and demographic (including age and education) growth, the paper also highlights that by 2030 the long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America will be in full swing, as its share will be 43 percent of the region's population, twice the value in 2005. This achievement is not guaranteed, as countries with large initial inequalities will have to achieve very high rates of inclusive growth.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 10804.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: May 2017
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10804
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  1. Francois Bourguignon & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15090, December.
  2. Lustig, Nora & Lopez-Calva, Luis F. & Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo, 2013. "Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-141.
  3. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
  4. World Bank, 2007. "Global Economic Prospects 2007 : Managing the Next Wave of Globalization," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7157, December.
  5. Anthony B. Atkinson & Andrea Brandolini, 2010. "On Analyzing the World Distribution of Income," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 24(1), pages 1-37, January.
  6. François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2002. "Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 727-744, September.
  7. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G., 2003. "Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2975, The World Bank.
  8. Branko Milanovic, 2013. "Global Income Inequality in Numbers: in History and Now," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(2), pages 198-208, 05.
  9. Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2003. "Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Microeconomic Simulations Help?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 235-280, January.
  10. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
  11. Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The Developing World's Bulging (but Vulnerable) Middle Class," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 445-454, April.
  12. Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Julian Messina & Jamele Rigolini & Luis-Felipe López-Calva & Maria Ana Lugo & Renos Vakis, 2013. "Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class
    [La movilidad económica y el crecimiento de la clase media en América Latina]
    ," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 11858, December.
  13. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
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