Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion
The present study uses the GIDD, a CGE-microsimulation model for Global Income Distribution Dynamics, to understand the ex-ante dynamics of global income distribution. Three main robust results emerge. First, under a set of realistic assumptions, there will be a reduction in global income inequality by 2030. This potential reduction can be fully accounted for by the projected convergence in average incomes across countries, with poor and populous countries growing faster than the rest of the world. Second, this convergence process will be accompanied by a widening of income distribution in two-thirds of the developing countries; the main cause being increasing skill premia. Third, a trend that may counter-balance the potential anti-globalization sentiment is the emergence of a global middle class: a group of consumers who demand access to, and have the means to purchase, international goods and services. The results show that the share of these consumers in the global population is likely to more than double in the next 20 years. These ex-ante trends in global income distribution suggest that the mid-1990s could be seen as a turning point after which global inequality began showing a negative tendency.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2003. "Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Microeconomic Simulations Help?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- François Bourguignon & Christian Morrisson, 2002.
"Inequality Among World Citizens: 1820-1992,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 727-744, September.
- Branko Milanovic, 2002.
"True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calculation Based on Household Surveys Alone,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 51-92, January.
- Milanovic, Branko, 1999. "True world income distribution, 1988 and 1993 - first calculations, based on household surveys alone," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2244, The World Bank.
- Branko milanovic, 2003. "True world income distribution, 1988 and 1993: First calculation based on household surveys alo," HEW 0305002, EconWPA.
- Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Ravallion, Martin, 2008. "Global poverty and inequality : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4623, The World Bank.
- Milanovic, Branko & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2002.
"Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does the World Have a Middle Class?,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(2), pages 155-78, June.
- Milanovic, Branko & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2001. "Decomposing world income distribution : does the world have a middle class ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2562, The World Bank.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2006. "The World Distribution of Income: Falling Poverty and ... Convergence, Period," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 351-397, May.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002.
"The World Distribution of Income (estimated from Individual Country Distributions),"
NBER Working Papers
8933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "The world distribution of income (estimated from individual country distributions)," Economics Working Papers 615, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2002.
- Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
- Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University) and Dani Rodrik (Harvard University), 2005.
"Why are some people (and countries) more protectionist than others?,"
gueconwpa~05-05-11, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- Mayda, Anna Maria & Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "Why are some people (and countries) more protectionist than others?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1393-1430, August.
- Mayda, Anna Maria & Rodrik, Dani, 2001. "Why are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist than Others?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2960, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anna Maria Mayda & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist Than Others?," NBER Working Papers 8461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ravallion, Martin, 2004. "Competing concepts of inequality in the globalization debate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3243, The World Bank.
- François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6586, September.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521029018 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ravallion, Martin, 2003.
Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 351-356, September.
- Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2005.
"The Electoral Consequences of the Washington Consensus,"
Research Department Publications
4405, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2005. "The Electoral Consequences of the Washington Consensus," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
- Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2005. "The Electoral Consequences of the Washington Consensus," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6691, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002.
"The Disturbing "Rise" of Global Income Inequality,"
NBER Working Papers
8904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francois Bourguignon & Victoria Levin & David Rosenblatt, 2004. "Declining International Inequality and Economic Divergence: Reviewing the Evidence Through Different Lenses," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 100, pages 13-26.
- Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4733. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.