IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/globdv/v2y2012i2n3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class

Author

Listed:
  • Bussolo Maurizio

    (The World Bank)

  • de Hoyos Rafael E.

    (The World Bank)

  • Medvedev Denis

    (The World Bank)

  • van der Mensbrugghe Dominique

    (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO))

Abstract

Over the past two decades, global inequality changed little despite significant structural shifts. Sustained growth in China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while many African countries fell behind. This paper assesses the distribution effects of a continuation of these trends. Growth in China and India will still drive the convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will join the global middle class. However, these positive developments will be somewhat offset by widening income disparities within countries, as fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Bussolo Maurizio & de Hoyos Rafael E. & Medvedev Denis & van der Mensbrugghe Dominique, 2012. "Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2012:i:2:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/1948-1837.1041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/1948-1837.1041
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/1948-1837.1041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ann Harrison, 2007. "Globalization and Poverty," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number harr06-1.
    2. Branko Milanovic, 2002. "True World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: First Calculation Based on Household Surveys Alone," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 51-92, January.
    3. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-1055, July.
    4. Branko Milanovic, 2006. "Global Income Inequality," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(1), pages 131-157, January.
    5. Branko Milanovic & Shlomo Yitzhak, 2006. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does The World Have A Middle Class?," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 2(2), pages 88-110.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    7. Branko Milanovic, 2005. "Global Income Inequality: What It Is And Why It Matters?," HEW 0512001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cowell, Frank A & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "How Much Inequality Can We Explain? A Methodology and an Application to the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 421-430, March.
    9. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    10. Michael Spence & Danny Leipziger, 2010. "Globalization and Growth - Implications for a Post-Crisis World : Commission on Growth and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2440.
    11. Ravi Kanbur & Michael Spence, 2010. "Equity and Growth in a Globalizing World : Commission on Growth and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2458.
    12. Harrison, Ann (ed.), 2007. "Globalization and Poverty," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226318004, September.
    13. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    14. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Twin peaks : growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2278, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    16. Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    2. Amer Ahmed & Maurizio Bussolo & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2020. "Global Inequality in a more educated world," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(4), pages 585-616, December.
    3. Bradford, Scott C. & Das, Satya & Saha, Anuradha, 2022. "Country size, per-capita income, and comparative advantage: services versus manufacturing," MPRA Paper 115091, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
    2. Bussolo, Maurizio & Maliszewska, Maryla & Murard, Elie, 2014. "The long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America is finally happening," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6912, The World Bank.
    3. Arjun Jayadev & Rahul Lahoti & Sanjay Reddy, 2015. "The Middle Muddle: Conceptualizing and Measuring the Global Middle Class," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 193, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    4. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis, 2008. "Is the developing world catching up ? global convergence and national rising dispersion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4733, The World Bank.
    5. Hajo Holzmann & Sebastian Vollmer & Julian Weisbrod, 2007. "Income Distribution Dynamics and Pro-Poor Growth in the World from 1970 to 2003," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 161, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2013. "Inequality from a global perspective: An alternative approach," Working Papers 302, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. Paolo Liberati, 2015. "The World Distribution of Income And Its Inequality, 1970–2009," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 248-273, June.
    8. Peter Edward, Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990?-Working Paper 341," Working Papers 341, Center for Global Development.
    9. Sanjay Reddy & Rahul Lahoti & Arjun Jayadev, 2015. "The global consumption and income project: An introduction and preliminary findings," WIDER Working Paper Series 003, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    11. Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The Developing World's Bulging (but Vulnerable) Middle Class," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 445-454, April.
    12. Calzadilla, Alvaro, 2010. "Global income distribution and poverty: Implications from the IPCC SRES scenarios," Kiel Working Papers 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Ahmad, Shakil & Khan, Imran, 2022. "The impact of globalization, foreign direct investment and trade openness on poverty: a case study of Pakistan," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 37(1), pages 41-60.
    14. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2008. "China's economic growth and its real exchange rate," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 123-145.
    15. Surya Bhushan, 2021. "Labour Productivity Dynamics in Indian Agriculture: 2000–2016," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 64(2), pages 371-388, June.
    16. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2008. "Technical Change and Economic Growth: Some Lessons from Secular Patterns and Some Conjectures on the Current Impact of ICT Technology," LEM Papers Series 2008/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Lahoti Rahul & Jayadev Arjun & Reddy Sanjay, 2016. "The Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP): An Overview," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 61-108, June.
    18. David Warner & D. S. Prasada Rao & William E. Griffiths & Duangkamon Chotikapanich, 2014. "Global Inequality; Levels and Trends, 1993–2005: How Sensitive are These to the Choice of PPPs and Real Income Measures?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 281-304, November.
    19. Branko Milanovic, 2012. "Global inequality recalculated and updated: the effect of new PPP estimates on global inequality and 2005 estimates," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    20. Ceccobelli, M. & Gitto, S. & Mancuso, P., 2012. "ICT capital and labour productivity growth: A non-parametric analysis of 14 OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 282-292.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2012:i:2:n:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.