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Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class

Author

Listed:
  • Bussolo Maurizio

    (The World Bank)

  • de Hoyos Rafael E.

    (The World Bank)

  • Medvedev Denis

    (The World Bank)

  • van der Mensbrugghe Dominique

    (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO))

Abstract

Over the past two decades, global inequality changed little despite significant structural shifts. Sustained growth in China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while many African countries fell behind. This paper assesses the distribution effects of a continuation of these trends. Growth in China and India will still drive the convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will join the global middle class. However, these positive developments will be somewhat offset by widening income disparities within countries, as fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Bussolo Maurizio & de Hoyos Rafael E. & Medvedev Denis & van der Mensbrugghe Dominique, 2012. "Global Growth and Distribution: China, India, and the Emergence of a Global Middle Class," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-29, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:globdv:v:2:y:2012:i:2:n:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-361, May.
    2. Cowell, Frank A & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "How Much Inequality Can We Explain? A Methodology and an Application to the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 421-430, March.
    3. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael E De Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Economic growth and income distribution: linking macro-economic models with household survey data at the global level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 3(1), pages 92-103.
    4. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    5. Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bourguignon, Fran├žois & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

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