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Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?

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  • Ferreira, Francisco H. G.
  • Leite, Phillippe G.

Abstract

The authors investigate whether micro-simulation techniques can shed light on the types of policies that should be adopted by countries wishing to meet their Millennium Development Goals. They compare two families of micro-simulations. The first family of micro-simulations decomposes required poverty changes into a change in the mean and a reduction in inequality. Although it highlights the importance of inequality reduction, it appears to be too general to be of much use for policymaking. The second family of micro-simulations is based on a richer model of behavior in the labor markets.It points to the importance of combining different policy options, such as educational expansion and targeted conditional redistribution schemes, to ensure that the poorest people in society are successfully reached. But the absence of market equilibria in these statistical models, as well as the strong stability assumptions which are implicit in their use, argue for extreme caution in their interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G., 2003. "Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2975, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2975
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Florencia Lopez Boo, 2006. "Changes in poverty and the stability of income distribution in Argentina: evidence from the 1990s via decompositions," Working Papers 33, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. Marco Ranaldi, 2022. "Income Composition Inequality," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(1), pages 139-160, March.
    3. Bussolo, Maurizio & Maliszewska, Maryla & Murard, Elie, 2014. "The long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America is finally happening," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6912, The World Bank.
    4. Paul Segal, 2022. "Inequality Interactions: The Dynamics of Multidimensional Inequalities," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 53(5), pages 941-961, September.
    5. World Bank Group, 2015. "Rwanda Poverty Assessment," World Bank Publications - Reports 22970, The World Bank Group.
    6. Ranaldi, Marco, 2021. "Global Distributions of Capital and Labor Incomes: Capitalization of the Global Middle Class," SocArXiv 3g59r, Center for Open Science.
    7. Leonardo Gasparini & Javier Alejo & Francisco Haimovich & Sergio Olivieri & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2010. "Poverty among older people in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 176-207.
    8. Aline Coudouel & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7041.
    9. Ranaldi, Marco, 2024. "Compositional Inequality: Measurement, Stylized Facts, and Normative Aspects," SocArXiv 75ghp, Center for Open Science.
    10. Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
    11. Christoph Lakner & Daniel Gerszon Mahler & Mario Negre & Espen Beer Prydz, 2022. "How much does reducing inequality matter for global poverty?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(3), pages 559-585, September.
    12. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 396-397, July.
    13. World Bank, 2005. "Bolivia : Poverty Assessment, Establishing the Basis for More Pro-Poor Growth," World Bank Publications - Reports 8412, The World Bank Group.
    14. Maurizio Bussolo & Rafael de Hoyos & Denis Medvedev, 2012. "Distributional Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2012), pages 79-129, August.
    15. Felipe Barrera-Osorio & Marcela Meléndez, 2010. "Agricultural Subsidies, Trade Barriers and Poverty: Household Microsimulation for Colombia," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas & Lyn Squire & T. N. Srinivasan (ed.), Global Exchange and Poverty, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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