IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3682.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Essama-Nssah, B.

Abstract

The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3682
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/08/10/000016406_20050810132422/Rendered/PDF/wps3682.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elena Ianchovichina & Alessandro Nicita & Isidro Soloaga, 2002. "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7), pages 945-972, July.
    2. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    3. Shantayanan Devarajan & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Adjustment with a Fixed Exchange Rate: Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 4, pages 83-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    5. Emini, Christian Arnault & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2005. "The poverty impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : the role of tax policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3746, The World Bank.
    6. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    7. Decaluwé, Bernard & Dumont, Jean-Christophe & Savard, Luc, 2000. "Measuring Poverty and Inequality in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 9926, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    8. Easterly, William, 1999. "The ghost of financing gap: testing the growth model used in the international financial institutions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 423-438, December.
    9. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G., 2003. "Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2975, The World Bank.
    10. Sherman Robinson & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Macro Models and Poverty Analysis: Theoretical Tensions and Empirical Practice," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 267-283, May.
    11. Ravallion, Martin & Lokshin, Michael, 2004. "Gainers and Losers from Trade Reform in Morocco," Conference papers 331308, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Luc Savard, 2004. "Poverty and Inequality Analysis within a CGE Framework: a Comparative Analysis of the Representative Agent and Micro-Simulation Approaches," Cahiers de recherche 0412, CIRPEE.
    13. Agenor,Pierre-Richard, 2003. "The mini-integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a framework for analyzing the unemployment and poverty effects of fiscal and labor market reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3067, The World Bank.
    14. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762.
    15. Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2002. "Estimating the poverty impacts of trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2790, The World Bank.
    16. Khan, Mohsin S. & Montiel, Peter & Haque, Nadeem U., 1990. "Adjustment with growth : Relating the analytical approaches of the IMF and the World Bank," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 155-179, January.
    17. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy Lessons from Two-Sector Models," CUDARE Working Papers 198566, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    18. Barja Daza, Gover & Monterrey Arce, Javier & Villarroel Böhrt, Sergio, 2006. "Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 6, pages 63-123, Abril.
    19. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Hertel, Thomas W., 2002. "Applied general equilibrium analysis of agricultural and resource policies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1373-1419, Elsevier.
    21. Decaluwe, B. & Patry, A. & Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E., 1999. "Poverty Analysis Within a General Equilibrium Framework," Cahiers de recherche 9909, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
    22. Finn Tarp & David Roland-Holst & John Rand, 2002. "Trade and Income Growth in Vietnam: Estimates from a New Social Accounting Matrix," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 157-184, June.
    23. Datt, Gaurav, 1998. "Computational tools for poverty measurement and analysis," FCND discussion papers 50, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    24. Bourguignon, Francois & Branson, William H. & de Melo, Jaime, 1992. "Adjustment and income distribution : A micro-macro model for counterfactual analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-39, January.
    25. Egor Kraev & Bishop Akolgo, 2005. "Assessing Modelling Approaches to the Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 299-312, May.
    26. Shigeru Otsubo, 2002. "Working Paper 61 - Linking Africa to a Changing World," Working Paper Series 195, African Development Bank.
    27. Luc Savard, 2005. "Poverty and Inequality Analysis within a CGE Framework: A Comparative Analysis of the Representative Agent and Microsimulation Approaches," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 313-331, May.
    28. Polak, Jacques J., 1998. "The IMF monetary model at 40," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-410, July.
    29. Essama-Nssah, B, 1997. "Impact of Growth and Distribution on Poverty in Madagascar," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 43(2), pages 239-252, June.
    30. Dixit, Avinash K., 1990. "Optimization in Economic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198772101.
    31. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Leite, Phillippe G. & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2004. "Can the distributional impacts of macroeconomic shocks be predicted? A comparison of the performance of macro-micro models with historical data for Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3303, The World Bank.
    32. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
    33. Michael Howard & Nlandu Mamingi, 2002. "The Monetary Approach To The Balance Of Payments: An Application To Barbados," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 47(02), pages 213-228.
    34. Ravallion, Martin & Huppi, Monika, 1991. "Measuring Changes in Poverty: A Methodological Case Study of Indonesia during an Adjustment Period," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 5(1), pages 57-82, January.
    35. Norman Gemmell & Oliver Morrissey, 2005. "Distribution and Poverty Impacts of Tax Structure Reform in Developing Countries: How Little We Know," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 131-144, March.
    36. Bernhard G. Gunter & Marc J. Cohen & Hans Lofgren, 2005. "Analysing Macro-Poverty Linkages: An Overview," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 243-265, May.
    37. James B. Davies, 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2004-08, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    38. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
    39. Rafael Gomes & Max Lawson, 2005. "Pro-Poor Macroeconomic Policies Require Poverty and Social Impact Analysis," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 369-384, May.
    40. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    41. Unknown, 2001. "General Discussion," Proceedings of the 6th Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshop, 2000: Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA: Report Card on Agriculture 16839, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
    42. Bernhard G. Gunter & Lance Taylor & Erinç Yeldan, 2005. "Analysing Macro-Poverty Linkages of External Liberalisation: Gaps, Achievements and Alternatives," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 23(3), pages 285-298, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Javier De Miguel-Velez & Jesus Perez-Mayo, 2008. "Poverty Reduction and SAM Multipliers: An Evaluation of Public Policies in a Regional Framework," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 449-466, December.
    2. Gasior, Katrin & Rastrigina, Olga, 2017. "Nowcasting: timely indicators for monitoring risk of poverty in 2014-2016," EUROMOD Working Papers EM7/17, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2015. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in the risk of poverty and income distribution in 2013 and 2014," EUROMOD Working Papers EM12/15, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Jekaterina Navicke & Olga Rastrigina & Holly Sutherland, 2014. "Nowcasting Indicators of Poverty Risk in the European Union: A Microsimulation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(1), pages 101-119, October.
    5. Leventi, Chrysa & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly & Vujackov, Sanja, 2016. "Nowcasting: estimating developments in median household income and risk of poverty in 2014 and 2015," EUROMOD Working Papers EM8/16, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Leventi, Chrysa & Navicke, Jekaterina & Rastrigina, Olga & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Nowcasting risk of poverty and income distribution in the EU in 2013," EUROMOD Working Papers EM11/14, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    7. Turid Avitsland & Jorgen Aasness, 2006. "Combining microsimulation and CGE models: Effects on equality of VAT reforms," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 132, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Ivaschenko, Oleksiy, 2007. "The welfare impact of the exchange rate adjustment in Seychelles and possible mitigation mechanisms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 463-472.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 396-397, July.
    2. Aline Coudouel & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7041, December.
    3. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2008. "The Impact of Developed Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: A Survey," Working Papers hal-03416399, HAL.
    4. Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Cabral, François & Cissé, Fatou & Diagne, Abdoulaye & Savard, Luc, 2007. "Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable microsimulé," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 483-528, décembre.
    5. Milton Ayoki, 2013. "Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Working Papers 258, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    6. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    7. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    8. Ayoki, Milton, 2013. "Pursuing a pro-poor trade liberalization agenda: Regionalism, multilateralism and poverty in Uganda," MPRA Paper 83547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard & Antonio Estache, 2013. "The Distributional Impact of Developed Countries’ Climate Change Policies on Senegal: A Macro-Micro CGE Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(6), pages 1-24, June.
    10. AfDB AfDB, 2006. "Working Paper 86 - A Review of Ex - ante Poverty Impact Assessments of Macroeconomic Policies in Cameroon and Ghana," Working Paper Series 2220, African Development Bank.
    11. AfDB AfDB, 2006. "Working Paper 86 - A Review of Ex - ante Poverty Impact Assessments of Macroeconomic Policies in Cameroon and Ghana," Working Paper Series 2300, African Development Bank.
    12. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Electricity Reforms In Mali: A Macro–Micro Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty And Distribution," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 127-147, March.
    13. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Distributional impact of developed countries CC policies on Senegal : A macro-micro CGE application," Cahiers de recherche 09-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    14. Boccanfuso, Dorothée & Richard, Patrick & Savard, Luc, 2013. "Parametric and nonparametric income distribution estimators in CGE micro-simulation modeling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 892-899.
    15. Colombo, Giulia, 2008. "Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: A Comparison of Different Approaches," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-054, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard & Govinda Timilsina, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha Based Biodiesel in Mali," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, November.
    17. Chitiga, Margaret & Kandiero, Tonia & Mabugu, Ramos, 2005. "A Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Trade Policies on Poverty in Zimbabwe," Conference papers 331388, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
    19. Nabil Annabi & Fatou Cissé & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwé, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 0512, CIRPEE.
    20. Sami Bibi & Rim Chatti, 2006. "Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis/Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie: Analyse avec une micro-simulatio," Working Papers MPIA 2006-07, PEP-MPIA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics&Policies; Poverty Assessment; Economic Theory&Research; Achieving Shared Growth; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3682. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.