Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare
This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure during the 1998-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreing saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expendituresin an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model), ii) on household income and consumption levels, and iii)on consumption based poverty indicators. The following were main results from experiments: The termsof trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreing saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreing saving flows had greater negative impact on house hold consumption then the terms of trade shock. The head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreing saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural áreas, being greater from reduction in foreing saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. The Combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output gorwth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreing saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty contaiment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objetive that requires long term commitment for an enviroment on macroeconomic stability.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 6 (Abril)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (591-2) 784159
Fax: (591-2) 786707
Web page: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andersen, Lykke E., 2003.
"Baja movilidad social en Bolivia:causas y consecuencias para el desarrollo,"
Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico,
Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 11-36, Septiembr.
- Andersen, Lykke Eg, 2002. "Baja Movilidad Social en Bolivia: Causas y Consecuencias para el Desarrollo," Documentos de trabajo 2/2002, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
- Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
- Gover Barja Daza & Javier Monterrey Arce & Sergio Villarroel Bohrt, 2005. "The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia," Research Department Publications 3181, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 1999.
"Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates For Welfare Analysis,"
217, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101, August.
- Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2003. "Capitalization and Privatization in Bolivia: An Aproximation to an Evaluation," MPRA Paper 23049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2001.
"Capitalization, Regulation and the Poor: Access to Basic Services in Bolivia,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Gover Barja & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "Capitalization, regulation and the poor: access to basic services in Bolivia," Chapters, in: Utility Privatization and Regulation, chapter 9 Edward Elgar.
- Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2001. "Capitalization, regulation and the poor: access to basic services in Bolivia," MPRA Paper 23920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2001.
- Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
- Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
- Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-31, March.
- Lanjouw, Jean Olson & Lanjouw, Peter, 1997. "Poverty comparisons with non-compatible data: theory and illustrations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1709, The World Bank.
- Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:0603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tirza July Aguilar Salas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.