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Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare

Author

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  • Barja, Gover
  • Monterrey, Javier
  • Villarroel, Sergio

Abstract

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1999-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model built with 1998 data as the base year), ii) on household income and consumption levels by quintiles and areas, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators by areas. The following were main results from experiments: The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty measured by the poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Under macroeconomic stability (no shocks and 1998 macro conditions) social expenditure policy for poverty reduction would have had an important positive impact on household income and consumption levels (more so in income then consumption), in reducing the number of poor (more in urban then rural areas), and in reducing poverty gap and poverty intensity (more so in rural areas). However, social expenditure policy does not promote the production of tradables. The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows. These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Barja, Gover & Monterrey, Javier & Villarroel, Sergio, 2004. "Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare," MPRA Paper 22937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gover Barja & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "Capitalization, regulation and the poor: access to basic services in Bolivia," Chapters,in: Utility Privatization and Regulation, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    3. Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    4. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
    5. Andersen, Lykke E., 2003. "Baja movilidad social en Bolivia:causas y consecuencias para el desarrollo," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 1, pages 11-36, Septiembr.
    6. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101.
    7. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    8. Lanjouw, Jean Olson & Lanjouw, Peter, 1997. "Poverty comparisons with non-compatible data: theory and illustrations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1709, The World Bank.
    9. Barja, Gover & Urquiola, Miguel, 2003. "Capitalization and Privatization in Bolivia: An Aproximation to an Evaluation," MPRA Paper 23049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sen, Amartya K, 1976. "Poverty: An Ordinal Approach to Measurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 219-231, March.
    11. Gover Barja & Miguel Urquiola, 2003. "Capitalization, regulation and the poor: access to basic services in Bolivia," Chapters,in: Utility Privatization and Regulation, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Gover Barja Daza & Javier Monterrey Arce & Sergio Villarroel Bohrt, 2005. "The Elasticity of Substitution in Demand for Non-Tradable Goods in Bolivia," Research Department Publications 3181, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Behrman, Jere R., 2009. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms, Volume Two: A Practitioner's Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Market, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling. A," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(03), pages 396-397, July.
    2. Tellería, Roberto & Ludeña, Carlos & Fernández, Soraya, 2011. "Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences," Documentos de Proyectos 3922, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Anonymous, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1).
    4. Marta Moratti, 2010. "Consumption Poverty and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia," Working Paper Series 1310, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    5. Aline Coudouel & Stefano Paternostro, 2006. "Analyzing the Distributional Impact of Reforms : A Practitioner’s Guide to Pension, Health, Labor Markets, Public Sector Downsizing, Taxation, Decentralization, and Macroeconomic Modeling, Volume 2," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7041.
    6. Essama-Nssah, B., 2005. "The poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks and policies : a review of modeling approaches," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3682, The World Bank.
    7. Yanez-Pagans, Monica, 2008. "Culture and Human Capital Investments: Evidence of an Unconditional Cash Transfer Program in Bolivia," IZA Discussion Papers 3678, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Shocks; Poverty; CGEM 1-2-3; HEGY;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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