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Stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté au Sénégal : une analyse par la modélisation en équilibre général calculable microsimulé

  • Boccanfuso, Dorothée

    (Département d’économique, Université de Sherbrooke, Groupe de recherche en économie et développement international (GREDI))

  • Cabral, François

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Cissé, Fatou

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Diagne, Abdoulaye

    (Consortium pour la recherche économique et sociale (CRES), Université Cheik Anta Diop, GREDI)

  • Savard, Luc

    (Département d’économique, Université de Sherbrooke, GREDI)

The new economic policy in Senegal aims to increase income of the poor and reduce its incidence. Poverty reduction strategy will be implemented in the context of trade liberalization in the agricultural sector. In the paper we develop a microsimulation computable general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of economic reforms. This approach offers a good framework to link economic policies with poverty and inequality indices. Our results reveal negative impact of increases in world prices of agricultural imports. Policies targeting an increase in the productivity of farmers favor urban households over rural households. The results obtained from our model proposed herein reveal the importance of incidence analysis when policy makers design targeting policies. La nouvelle orientation de la politique économique au Sénégal vise à accroître les revenus des pauvres et à attaquer la pauvreté là où elle est principalement localisée. La stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté va être mise en oeuvre dans un contexte de libéralisation des échanges commerciaux internationaux notamment dans le secteur agricole. Dans ce contexte, nous avons développé un modèle d’équilibre général calculable microsimulé multiménages intégrés permettant d’évaluer l’impact de politiques au niveau des ménages. Nous avons établi le lien entre ces réformes économiques, la pauvreté et la distribution de revenu. Ce modèle offre beaucoup de flexibilité et permet d’introduire des mécanismes de transmission entre les politiques et les indices d’inégalité et pauvreté. Les impacts négatifs obtenus sur la pauvreté suite à l’augmentation du prix des importations agricoles se révèlent importants. De plus, les résultats mitigés obtenus pour les pauvres en milieu rural devraient amener le gouvernement à s’interroger sur la stratégie d’aide à la productivité agricole, afin de prévenir de tels résultats. Nos résultats montrent ainsi que cette approche est un outil riche permettant d’évaluer l’impact de politiques économiques ou de chocs externes sur la pauvreté et la distribution de revenu.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 83 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (décembre)
Pages: 483-528

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:83:y:2007:i:4:p:483-528
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