IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis/Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie: Analyse avec une micro-simulation séquentielle


  • Sami Bibi
  • Rim Chatti


The effects of trade liberalization on poverty in Tunisia are examined, using a layered dynamic CGE-microsimulation approach. A dynamic CGE model endogenously generates the evolution of prices, as well as income paths under protection and freer trade assumptions for each household group. These results are then used to assess the change in real income of each household, using a sample from the 1995 household survey, and thus the effects of the simulated changes on poverty. Dominance tests are also used to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing line and a poverty measure. Simulation results show that trade openness slows down the poverty reduction in the short run, but enhances it in the long-run/Une analyse dynamique des effets de la libéralisation commerciale montre que celle-ci n'entraînera pas, contrairement aux cas précédents, une augmentation de la pauvreté en Tunisie. Néanmoins, l'ouverture commerciale freinera probablement la dynamique de la réduction de la pauvreté à court terme mais, l'accélèrera à long terme. La baisse de la pauvreté touchera aussi bien les ménages urbains que ruraux, avec une plus faible réduction de la pauvreté rurale à court et à long terme. Pour comprendre ce résultat, il faut d'abord noter que la Tunisie, comme dans la plupart des autres pays, impose des taux de protection plus élevés sur les produits agricoles que sur les produits industriels; pendant que les branches industrielles, notamment celle des services, contribuent davantage aux recettes d'exportation. Par conséquent, la libéralisation commerciale entraîne une expansion plus rapide du secteur des services par rapport aux autres branches industrielles et au secteur agricole. Cela engendre un taux de croissance du revenu nominal des ouvriers et des exploitants agricoles plus faible que celui des autres ménages urbains. Les prix à la consommation croient plus faiblement pour les ménages urbains, qui consomment davantage de produits industriels et des services, que pour les ménages ruraux, qui consomment plus de produits alimentaires. Tous ces résultats font que l'amélioration du revenu réel, qui touche toutes les catégories des ménages, est légèrement plus importante pour les ménages urbains.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Bibi & Rim Chatti, 2006. "Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis/Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie: Analyse avec une micro-simulatio," Working Papers MPIA 2006-07, PEP-MPIA.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2006-07

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sami Bibi & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2007. "Poverty-decreasing indirect tax reforms: Evidence from Tunisia," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 14(2), pages 165-190, April.
    2. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    3. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    4. L. ALAN WINTERS & NEIL McCULLOCH & ANDREW McKAY, 2015. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 14, pages 271-314 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 115-141, June.
    6. Atkinson, A B, 1987. "On the Measurement of Poverty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 749-764, July.
    7. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    8. François Bourguignon & Anne-Sophie Robilliard & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Representative versus real households in the macro-economic modeling of inequality," Working Papers DT/2003/10, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    9. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Vos, R.P. & Ganuza, E. & Morley, S. & Robinson, S. & Pineiro, V., 2004. "Are export promotion and trade liberalization good for Latin America's poor? : a comparative macro-micro CGE analysis," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19158, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    11. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
    12. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2003. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 93-99, January.
    13. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
    14. Davies, James B., 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Feenstra, Robert C. & Madani, Dorsati & Yang, Tzu-Han & Liang, Chi-Yuan, 1999. "Testing endogenous growth in South Korea and Taiwan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 317-341, December.
    16. Pierre-Richard AGÉNOR & Derek H. C. CHEN & Michael GRIMM, "undated". "Linking Representative Household Models with Household Surveys for Poverty Analysis: A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies," EcoMod2004 330600002, EcoMod.
    17. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    18. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-149, January.
    19. Ravallion, M., 1998. "Poverty Lines in Theory and Practice," Papers 133, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
    20. Morrison, Catherine J & Schwartz, Amy Ellen, 1996. "State Infrastructure and Productive Performance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1095-1111, December.
    21. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
    22. Rioja, Felix K., 1999. "Productiveness and welfare implications of public infrastructure: a dynamic two-sector general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-404, April.
    23. Hoekman, Bernard & Michalopoulos, Constantine & Schiff, Maurice & Tarr, David, 2001. "Trade policy reform and poverty alleviation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2733, The World Bank.
    24. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2002. "Government Deficit, Public Investment, and Public Capital in the Transition to an Aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 462-491, December.
    25. Geoffrey J Bannister, 2001. "International Trade and Poverty Alleviation," IMF Working Papers 01/54, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Trade liberalization; poverty; dynamic CGE models; sequential microsimulation; Tunisia/Libéralisation des échanges; pauvreté; modèles d'EGC dynamiques; micro-simulation séquentielle; Tunisie;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2006-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manuel Paradis). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.