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Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola

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  • Fran??ois Bourguignon

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  • Francisco H. G. Ferreira
  • Phillippe G. Leite

Abstract

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on micro-econometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil???s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Fran??ois Bourguignon & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Phillippe G. Leite, 2002. "Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 516, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-516
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    Cited by:

    1. David Epstein & Dolores Jiménez-Rubio & Peter C. Smith & Marc Suhrcke, 2009. "Social determinants of health: an economic perspective," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 495-502.
    2. Das, Jishnu & Quy-Toan Do & Ozler, Berk, 2004. "Conditional cash transfers and the equity-efficiency debate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3280, The World Bank.
    3. KUMARA, Ajantha Sisira & PFAU, Wade Donald, 2010. "IMPACT of Cash Transfer Programs on School Attendance and Child Poverty: An Ex-ante Simulation for Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 30501, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Aug 2010.
    4. Andrea Rodrigues Ferro & Ana Lucia Kassouf & Deborah Levison, 2011. "The Impact Ofconditional Cash Transfer Programs On Household Work Decisions In Brazil," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 208, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Rawlings, Laura B., 2004. "A new approach to social assistance : Latin America's experience with conditional cash transfer programs," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 30165, The World Bank.
    6. Yáñes Aguilar, Ernesto, 2012. "El Impacto del Bono Juancito Pinto. Un Análisis a Partir de Micro Simulaciones," Documentos de trabajo 6/2012, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    7. Sadoulet, Elisabeth & de Janvry, Alain, 2003. "Targeting and Calibrating Educational Grants for Greater Efficiency," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt00d6w8wj, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    8. Kakwani, Nanak & Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Son, Hyun H., 2006. "Linkages between growth, poverty and the labour market," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 634, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    9. Tavares, Priscilla Albuquerque, 2010. "Efeito do Programa Bolsa Família sobre a oferta de trabalho das mães," Revista Economia e Sociedade, Instituto de Economia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), vol. 41, pages 1-23, December.
    10. Amanda Glassman & Jessica Todd, 2007. "Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers 120, Center for Global Development.
    11. Feitosa de Britto, T., 2004. "Conditional cash transfers: why have they become so prominent in recent poverty reduction strategies in Latin America," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19150, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    12. Janet Currie & Firouz Gahvari, 2008. "Transfers in Cash and In-Kind: Theory Meets the Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 333-383.
    13. Pierre, Gaelle & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2007. "How labor market policies can combine workers'protection with job creation : a partial review of some key issues and policy options," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 41439, The World Bank.
    14. Pierre, Gaelle & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2004. "Employment regulations through the eyes of employers - do they matter and how do firms respond to them?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3463, The World Bank.
    15. Basu, Kaushik, 2003. "Policy Dilemmas for Controlling Child Labor," Working Papers 03-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    16. Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank.
    17. Marcelo Cortes Neri & Nanak Kakwani & Hyun H. Son, 2007. "Linkages Between Pro-Poor Growth And The Labor Market In Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 096, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Nanak Kakwani & Fabio Veras Soares & Hyun H. Son, 2005. "Conditional cash transfers in African countries," Working Papers 9, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    19. Firouz Gahvari & Enlinson Mattos, 2007. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Public Provision of Private Goods, and Income Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 491-502, March.
    20. Fabian Bornhorst, 2009. "How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA," IMF Working Papers 09/187, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Nanak Kakwani & Marcelo Neri & Hyun H. Son, 2006. "Linkages between Pro-Poor Growth, Social Programmes and Labour Market: The Recent Brazilian Experience," Working Papers 26, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    22. Veronica Amarante & Rodrigo Arim & Gioia de Melo & Andrea Vigorito, 2010. "Family Allowances and Child School Attendance: An ex-ante Evaluation of Alternative Schemes in Uruguay," Working Papers PMMA 2010-07, PEP-PMMA.
    23. World Bank, 2005. "Central America : Education Strategy Paper," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8397, The World Bank.
    24. Aber, Lawrence & Rawlings, Laura B., 2011. "North-South knowledgesharing on incentive-based conditional cash transfer programs," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 59565, The World Bank.
    25. Son, Hyun & Florentino, Jhiedon, 2008. "Ex-ante Impact Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Program on School Attendance and Poverty: The Case of the Philippines," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 142, Asian Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Transfers; Demand for Schooling; Child Labor;

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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