IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v28y2003i2p353-364.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data

Author

Listed:
  • J. A. L. Cranfield
  • James S. Eales
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • Paul V. Preckel

Abstract

This paper assesses the ability of five structural demand systems to predict demands when estimated with cross sectional data spanning countries with widely varying per capita expenditure levels. Results indicate demand systems with less restrictive income responses are superior to demand systems with more restrictive income effects. Among the least restrictive demand systems considered, An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System (AIDADS) and Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) seem roughly tied for best, while the Quadratic Expenditure System (QES) is a close second. Given differences in the characteristics of AIDADS and QUAIDS, it is concluded the former is better suited to instances where income exhibits wide variation and the latter to cases when prices exhibit considerable variation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:353-364 DOI: 10.1007/s001810200135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s001810200135
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Becker, Gary S, 1974. "A Theory of Social Interactions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1063-1093, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Soest, Arthur van & Kapteyn, Arie & Kooreman, Peter, 1993. "Coherency and regularity of demand systems with equality and inequality constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 161-188.
    3. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics,in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
    4. V. Joseph Hotz & Lixin Colin Xu & Marta Tienda & Avner Ahituv, 2002. "Are There Returns To The Wages Of Young Men From Working While In School?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 221-236, May.
    5. Christian Dustmann & Arthur Soest, 2007. "Part-time work, school success and school leaving," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 277-299.
    6. Stefan Hochguertel & Henry Ohlsson, 2009. "Compensatory inter vivos gifts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pages 993-1023.
    7. Christian Dustmann & Arthur Soest, 2007. "Part-time work, school success and school leaving," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 277-299.
    8. Becker, Gary S, 1981. "Altruism in the Family and Selfishness in the Market Place," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(189), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Christian Dustmann & Najma Rajah & Arthur van Soest, 2003. "Class Size, Education, and Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(485), pages 99-120, February.
    10. Hausman, Jerry A, 1985. "The Econometrics of Nonlinear Budget Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1255-1282, November.
    11. John Micklewright & Najma Rajah & Stephen Smith, 1994. "Labouring and Learning: Part-Time Work and Full-Time Education," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 148(1), pages 73-97, May.
    12. Christian Dustmann & John Mickelwright & Najma Rajah & Stephen Smith, 1996. "Earning and learning: educational policy and the growth of part-time work by full-time pupils," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 79-103, February.
    13. Rene van den Brink & Rene Levinsky & Miroslav Zeleny, 2007. "The balanced solution for cooperative transferable utility games," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-073, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Dunn, Thomas A. & Phillips, John W., 1997. "The timing and division of parental transfers to children," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 135-137, February.
    15. Michael, Robert T & Tuma, Nancy Brandon, 1984. "Youth Employment: Does Life Begin at 16?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 464-476, October.
    16. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1997. "Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, pages 1121-1166.
    17. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "Why Youths Drop Out of High School: The Impact of Preferences, Opportunities, and Abilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1295-1340, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoang, Hoa & Meyers, William H., 2015. "Food demand in Vietnam: structural changes and projections to 2030," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212456, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2014. "Testing the adding up condition in demand systems," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182827, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Roberto Roson & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models," IEFE Working Papers 96, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Ole Boysen, 2016. "Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 260-293, June.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2007. "Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 289-337, April.
    6. Paris, Quirino & Caracciolo, Francesco, 2012. "Quantity Versus Shares in Estimating Demand Systems," Working Papers 124575, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., Jr., 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 59870, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    9. Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Thomas W. Hertel, 2016. "Confronting the Food–Energy–Environment Trilemma: Global Land Use in the Long Run," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, pages 545-570.
    10. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:04:n:s2010007817500129 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice:Evidence from Tanzania," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    13. Cai, Yongyang & Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Elliott, Joshua & Hertel, Thomas W., 2014. "The effect of climate and technological uncertainty in crop yields on the optimal path of global land use," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7009, The World Bank.
    14. repec:spr:hecrev:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paula Carvalho Pereda & Denisard Cneio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Demand for Nutrients in Brazil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211136590, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V., 2011. "Predicting within country household food expenditure variation using international cross-section estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 218-220.
    17. repec:spr:agfoec:v:2:y:2014:i:1:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Liu, Kang Ernest, 2006. "A Quadratic Generalization of the Almost Ideal and Translog Demand Systems: An Application to Food Demand in Urban China," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21387, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Goddard, Ellen W. & Shank, Benjamin & Panter, Chris & Nilsson, Tomas K.H. & Cash, Sean B., 2007. "Canadian Chicken Industry: Consumer Preferences, Industry Structure and Producer Benefits from Investment in Research and Advertising," Project Report Series 52088, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    20. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01599362, HAL.
    21. Paul de Boer & Bjarne S. Jensen, 2005. "The Expenditure System of CDES Indirect Utility Functions," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_036, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    22. Valenzuela, Ernesto & Ivanic, Maros & Ludena, Carlos E. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2005. "Agriculture Productivity Growth: Is the Current Trend on the Track to Poverty Reduction?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19152, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    23. Arabatzis, Garyfallos & Klonaris, Stathis, 2009. "An analysis of Greek wood and wood product imports: Evidence from the linear quadratic aids," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 266-270, July.
    24. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:353-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.