IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

L'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires sur la pauvreté des enfants et les reponses politiques au Mali

  • Sami Bibi
  • John Cockburn
  • Massa Coulibaly
  • Luca Tiberti

Depuis 2006, le Mali subit de plein fouet les effets de la crise alimentaire mondiale avec des augmentations de prix allant jusqu'à 67%. Cette étude propose des simulations des impacts de cette crise et de diverses politiques de réponse sur le bien-être des enfants. Les impacts analysés se situent au niveau de la pauvreté monétaire (alimentaire), la nutrition, l'éducation, le travail et l'accès aux services de santé des enfants. Selon les simulations, chez les enfants la pauvreté alimentaire aura augmenté de 41 à 51% et le taux d'insuffisance calorique de 32 à 40%, alors que les impacts sur leur participation scolaire, leur travail et leur accès aux services de santé auront été assez faibles. Pour préparer une réponse adéquate, le gouvernement doit tout d'abord identifier les individus pauvres à protéger sur la base d'un nombre restreint de caractéristiques sociodémographiques facilement observables. Dans cette étude, une méthode de ciblage est proposée. Toutefois, les simulations du modèle de ciblage montrent qu’environ un quart des enfants pauvres sont exclus par erreur (souscouverture), alors que plus du tiers des enfants non-pauvres sont inclus par erreur (fuites). Ces erreurs de ciblage, qui augmentent proportionnellement lorsqu'on vise les pauvres extrêmes, réduisent l'impact et augmentent les coûts de toute intervention politique. Cela dit, il est à noter que les fuites peuvent quand même agir au niveau de l'insuffisance calorique, de la participation scolaire, du travail des enfants et de l'accès aux services de santé où les besoins ne se trouvent pas exclusivement du côté des enfants pauvres. Le ciblage des enfants ou même des sous-groupes, par âge, d'enfants se bute au problème de la diffusion probable des bénéfices aux autres membres du ménage. De plus, pour des décisions concernant le travail, l'éducation et l'accès aux services de santé, c'est le revenu total du ménage qui est déterminant. La politique de cantines scolaires se révèle particulièrement efficace du fait qu'elle concentre tous les fonds publics consentis exclusivement sur la consommation alimentaire hautement nutritive, alors que des transferts en espèces aux ménages peuvent servir à diverses fins. De plus, il est probable qu'elle ait des impacts souhaitables sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants. Toutefois, certaines mises en garde s'imposent sur l'exclusion des enfants qui ne participent pas à l'école, la difficulté de cibler uniquement les enfants pauvres et la possibilité que l'enfant se voit réduire proportionnellement ses rations alimentaires à l’intérieur du ménage.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/iwp_2009_02_fre.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

File URL: https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/iwp_2009_02_fre.zip
File Function: Compressed
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Innocenti Working Papers in its series Papers with number inwopa09/60.

as
in new window

Length: 93
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa09/60
Contact details of provider:
Order Information: Web: https://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  2. Bibi Sami, 2003. "On the Impact of Better Targeted Transfers on Poverty in Tunisia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 17-35, January.
  3. Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-85, July.
  4. Budd, John W, 1993. "Changing Food Prices and Rural Welfare: A Nonparametric Examination of the Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 587-603, April.
  5. Sami Bibi & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2007. "Poverty-decreasing indirect tax reforms: Evidence from Tunisia," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 165-190, April.
  6. Glewwe, P., 1990. "Investigating The Determinants Of Household Welfare In Cote D'Ivoire," Papers 71, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
  7. Alderman, Harold & Lindert, Kathy, 1998. "The Potential and Limitations of Self-Targeted Food Subsidies," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 213-29, August.
  8. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery, 2007. "Down to Earth : Agriculture and Poverty Reduction in Africa," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6624, August.
  9. Martin Ravallion & Gaurav Datt, 1995. "Is Targeting Through a Work Requirement Efficient? Some Evidence for Rural India," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-41, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  10. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
  11. Alderman,Harold & Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2003. "Long-term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," FCND briefs 168, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  12. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4740, The World Bank.
  13. Bibi, Sami & Duclos, Jean-Yves, 2007. "Equity and policy effectiveness with imperfect targeting," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 109-140, May.
  14. Smith, Lisa C. & Alderman, Harold & Aduayom, Dede, 2006. "Food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa: new estimates from household expenditure surveys," Research reports 146, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  15. Feldstein, Martin, 1976. "On the theory of tax reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 77-104.
  16. Javier Escobal & Máximo Torero, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Asset Complementarities: The Case of Rural Peru," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 137-164.
  17. Diamond, Charles A. & Simon, Curtis J. & Warner, John T., 1990. "A multinomial probability model of size income distribution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 43-61.
  18. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  19. Christopher B. Barrett & Paul A. Dorosh, 1996. "Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 656-669.
  20. Joseph, George & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4744, The World Bank.
  21. Quisumbing, Agnes & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela & Bassett, Lucy & Usnick, Michael & Pandolfelli, Lauren & Morden, Cheryl & Alderman, Harold, 2008. "Helping women respond to the global food price crisis:," Policy briefs 7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  22. Poulton, Colin & Kydd, Jonathan & Wiggins, Steve & Dorward, Andrew, 2006. "State intervention for food price stabilisation in Africa: Can it work?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 342-356, August.
  23. Ravallion, Martin, 1996. "Issues in Measuring and Modelling Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1328-43, September.
  24. David Coady & Margaret Grosh & John Hoddinott, 2004. "Targeting of Transfers in Developing Countries : Review of Lessons and Experience," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14902, August.
  25. Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank.
  26. Jensen, Robert T. & Miller, Nolan, 2008. "The Impact of the World Food Price Crisis on Nutrition in China," Working Paper Series rwp08-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  27. Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Laura Deotti, 2008. "Millet Prices, Public Policy and Child Malnutrition: The case of Niger in 2005," Papers inwopa08/49, Innocenti Working Papers.
  28. Joan R. Rodgers, 1991. "Female-Headed Families: Why Are They So Poor?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_45, Levy Economics Institute.
  29. King, Mervyn A., 1983. "Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-214, July.
  30. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "A Model of Inherited Wealth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 608-626.
  31. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
  32. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
  33. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
  34. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  35. Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "Prices, wages and poverty in rural India: what lessons do the time series data hold for policy?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 351-364, June.
  36. Pitt, Mark M., 1985. "Equity, externalities and energy subsidies The case of kerosine in Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 201-217, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa09/60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Patrizia Faustini)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.