IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v176y2020ics0921800919316672.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vulnerability to Natural Shocks: Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • Salvucci, Vincenzo
  • Santos, Ricardo

Abstract

Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11–17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvucci, Vincenzo & Santos, Ricardo, 2020. "Vulnerability to Natural Shocks: Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:176:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919316672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919316672
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    2. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2007. "Coping with flood: role of institutions in Bangladesh," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 36(2), pages 169-180, March.
    3. Thiemo Fetzer, 2014. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Violence? Evidence from India," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 53, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    4. Javier E. Baez & Dorothy Kronick & Andrew D. Mason, 2013. "Rural Households in a Changing Climate," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 28(2), pages 267-289, August.
    5. Vu, Linh & Glewwe, Paul, 2011. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Janet Currie, 2009. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 87-122, March.
    7. Carter, Michael R. & Little, Peter D. & Mogues, Tewodaj & Negatu, Workneh, 2007. "Poverty Traps and Natural Disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 835-856, May.
    8. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    9. Christopher B. Barrett & Paul A. Dorosh, 1996. "Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 656-669.
    10. De Silva, M.M.G.T. & Kawasaki, Akiyuki, 2018. "Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Disaster Risk: A Case Study of Flood and Drought Impact in a Rural Sri Lankan Community," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 131-140.
    11. Robert Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 399-404, May.
    12. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    13. Caruso, Germán Daniel, 2017. "The legacy of natural disasters: The intergenerational impact of 100 years of disasters in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 209-233.
    14. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    15. Ravallion, Martin, 1990. "Rural Welfare Effects of Food Price Changes under Induced Wage Responses: Theory and Evidence for Bangladesh," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 574-585, July.
    16. John A. Maluccio & John Hoddinott & Jere R. Behrman & Reynaldo Martorell & Agnes R. Quisumbing & Aryeh D. Stein, 2009. "The Impact of Improving Nutrition During Early Childhood on Education among Guatemalan Adults," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(537), pages 734-763, April.
    17. Simler, Kenneth R., 2010. "The short-term impact of higher food prices on poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5210, The World Bank.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer, 2014. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Violence? Evidence from India," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 053, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    19. Deaton, Angus, 1989. "Rice Prices and Income Distribution in Thailand: A Non-parametric Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 1-37, Supplemen.
    20. Karla Hemming & Jen Marsh, 2013. "A menu-driven facility for sample-size calculations in cluster randomized controlled trials," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 13(1), pages 114-135, March.
    21. Douglas Almond & Kenneth Y. Chay & David S. Lee, 2005. "The Costs of Low Birth Weight," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 1031-1083.
    22. Budd, John W, 1993. "Changing Food Prices and Rural Welfare: A Nonparametric Examination of the Cote d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(3), pages 587-603, April.
    23. Lechner, Michael, 2011. "The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 165-224, November.
    24. Hartwig De Haen & Günter Hemrich, 2007. "The economics of natural disasters: implications and challenges for food security," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 31-45, December.
    25. Thomas, Timothy & Christiaensen, Luc & Do, Quy Toan & Trung, Le Dang, 2010. "Natural disasters and household welfare : evidence from Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5491, The World Bank.
    26. Beegle, Kathleen & Dehejia, Rajeev H. & Gatti, Roberta & Krutikova, Sofya, 2008. "The consequences of child labor : evidence from longitudinal data in rural Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4677, The World Bank.
    27. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    28. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty And Natural Disasters — A Qualitative Survey Of The Empirical Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-36, March.
    29. Stephane Hallegatte & Mook Bangalore & Laura Bonzanigo & Marianne Fay & Tamaro Kane & Ulf Narloch & Julie Rozenberg & David Treguer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2016. "Shock Waves," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22787, December.
    30. Jeffrey P. Prestemon & Thomas P. Holmes, 2000. "Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(1), pages 145-160.
    31. Peter Little & M. Priscilla Stone & Tewodaj Mogues & A. Peter Castro & Workneh Negatu, 2006. "'Moving in place': Drought and poverty dynamics in South Wollo, Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 200-225.
    32. Narloch,Ulf Gerrit, 2016. "The varying income effects of weather variation : initial insights from rural Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7764, The World Bank.
    33. Carlo del Ninno & Bradford Mills, 2015. "Safety Nets in Africa : Effective Mechanisms to Reach the Poor and Most Vulnerable [Les filets sociaux en Afrique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21369, December.
    34. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    35. Wodon, Quentin & Zaman, Hassan, 2008. "Rising food prices in Sub-Saharan Africa : poverty impact and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4738, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alves, Pedro Jorge & Lima, Ricardo Carvalho de Andrade & Emanuel, Lucas, 2022. "Natural disasters and establishment performance: Evidence from the 2011 Rio de Janeiro Landslides," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    2. Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 485-519, April.
    3. M. A. Aalst & E. Koomen & H. L. F. Groot, 2023. "Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought and Saltwater Intrusion of Rice Farming Households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 407-430, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sami Bibi & Massa Coulibaly & John Cockburn & Luca Tiberti, 2009. "L'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires sur la pauvreté des enfants et les reponses politiques au Mali," Papers inwopa09/60, Innocenti Working Papers.
    2. Balié, Jean & Minot, Nicholas & Valera, Harold Glenn A., 2021. "Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 289-306.
    3. Sami Bibi & John Cockburn & Massa Coulibaly & Luca Tiberti, 2009. "The Impact of the Increase in Food Prices on Child Poverty and the Policy Response in Mali," Papers inwopa09/66, Innocenti Working Papers.
    4. Caruso, Germán Daniel, 2017. "The legacy of natural disasters: The intergenerational impact of 100 years of disasters in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 209-233.
    5. Palacios, Paola & Rojas-Velásquez, Libardo, 2023. "Impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in the municipalities of Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Groppo, Valeria & Kraehnert, Kati, 2016. "Extreme Weather Events and Child Height: Evidence from Mongolia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 59-78.
    7. Joseph, George & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Assessing the potential impact on poverty of rising cereals prices : the case of Mali," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4744, The World Bank.
    8. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty And Natural Disasters — A Qualitative Survey Of The Empirical Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-36, March.
    9. G. Jacoby , Hanan & Dasgupta, Basab, 2014. "Household Exposure to Food Price Shocks in Rural Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(1-2), pages 83-100, March-Jun.
    10. Tran, Thi Xuyen, 2021. "Typhoon and Agricultural Production Portfolio -Empirical Evidence for a Developing Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242411, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    12. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    13. Minot, Nicholas & Dewina, Reno, 2013. "Impact of food price changes on household welfare in Ghana:," IFPRI discussion papers 1245, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Daniel Lederman & Guido Porto, 2016. "The Price Is Not Always Right: On the Impacts of Commodity Prices on Households (and Countries)," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 31(1), pages 168-197.
    15. Valeria Groppo & Kati Kraehnert, 2017. "The impact of extreme weather events on education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 433-472, April.
    16. Vincenzo Salvucci & Ricardo Santos & Félix Mambo & Yonesse Paris, 2018. "Simulating the effect on households’ real consumption and poverty of the increase in prices that followed the 2015–16 economic crisis in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Negi, Digvijay S., 2022. "Global food price surge, in-kind transfers and household welfare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    20. Félix Mambo & Yonesse Paris & Vincenzo Salvucci & Ricardo Santos, 2018. "Simulating the effect on households' real consumption and poverty of the increase in prices that followed the 2015-16 economic crisis in Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:176:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919316672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.