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Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam

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  • Linh Vu Hoang

    () (Center for Agricultural Policy, Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development)

  • Paul Glewwe

    () (Professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of rising food prices on poverty and welfare in Vietnam. Increases in food prices raise the real incomes of those selling food, but reduce the welfare of net food purchasers. Overall, the net impact of higher food prices on an average Vietnamese household's welfare is positive. However, the benefits and costs are not spread evenly across the population. A majority of the population would be worse off from increases in food prices. More specifically, a uniform increase in both food consumer and producer prices would reduce the welfare of 56 percent of Vietnamese households. Similarly, a uniform increase in the price of rice would reduce the welfare of about 54 percent of rural households and about 92 percent of urban households. The reason why average household welfare increases is that the average welfare loss of the households whose welfare declines (net purchasers) is smaller than the average welfare gain of the households whose welfare increases (net sellers). A relatively small increase in food prices reduces poverty rate slightly because poorer households in Vietnam tend to be net sellers. However, a large food price increase, for example a 50 percent increase, may increase the poverty rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Linh Vu Hoang & Paul Glewwe, 2009. "Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam," Working Papers 13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:1309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. von Braun, Joachim, 2008. "Food and financial crises: Implications for agriculture and the poor," Food policy reports 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Youzhu Li & Jingbo Xia & Chongguang Li & Mingyang Zheng, 2015. "Construction of an Early-Warning System for Vegetable Prices Based on Index Contribution Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, March.
    2. Javier E. Baez & Leonardo Lucchetti & Maria E. Genoni & Mateo Salazar, 2017. "Gone with the Storm: Rainfall Shocks and Household Wellbeing in Guatemala," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1253-1271, August.
    3. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Quality, Quantity, and Nutritional Impacts of Rice Price Changes in Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 329-340.
    4. Rita Motzigkeit Gonzalez, 2016. "Welfare effects of changed prices The “Tortilla Crisis" revisited," Working Papers 167, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. García-Germán, Sol & Romeo, Alessandro & Magrini, Emiliano & Balié, Jean, 2016. "The impact of food price shocks on weight loss: Evidence from the adult population of Tanzania," DARE Discussion Papers 1611, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    6. Ian Coxhead & Vu Hoang Linh & Le Dong Tam, 2012. "Global market shocks and poverty in Vietnam: the case of rice," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(5), pages 575-592, September.
    7. Gibson, John & Kim, Bonggeun, 2013. "Do the urban poor face higher food prices? Evidence from Vietnam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 193-203.
    8. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    9. Balié, Jean & Magrini, Emiliano & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2016. "Cereal price shocks and volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa: What does really matter for farmers' welfare?," DARE Discussion Papers 1607, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    10. Lohmann, Steffen & Lechtenfeld, Tobias, 2015. "The Effect of Drought on Health Outcomes and Health Expenditures in Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 432-448.
    11. McKay, Andy & Tarp, Finn, 2014. "Distributional impacts of the 2008 global food price spike in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 030, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    13. Talbot, Theodore & Nguyen, Manh Hai, 2013. "The Political Economy of Food Price Policy: the Case of Rice Prices in Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 035, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    15. Tschirley, David & Myers, Robert & Zavale, Helder, 2014. "MSU/FSG Study of the Impact of WFP Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement on Markets, Households, and Food Value Chains," Food Security International Development Working Papers 184835, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    16. Bryan, Shane, 2013. "A Cacophony of Policy Responses: Evidence from Fourteen Countries During the 2007/08 Food Price Crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series 029, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    Keywords

    Vietnam poverty rate;

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