IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v6y2018i4p116-d174522.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Candila

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Fisciano 84084, Italy)

  • Salvatore Farace

    (Dipartimento di Scienze Giuridiche, University of Salerno, Fisciano 84084, Italy)

Abstract

Addressing the volatility spillovers of agricultural commodities is important for at least two reasons. First, for the last several years, the volatility of agricultural commodity prices seems to have increased. Second, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, there is a strong need for understanding the potential (negative) impacts on food security caused by food commodity volatilities. This paper aims at investigating the presence, the size, and the persistence of volatility spillovers among five agricultural commodities (corn, sugar, wheat, soybean, and bioethanol) and five Latin American (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru) stock market indexes. Overall, when a negative shock hits the commodity market, Latin American stock market volatility tends to increase. This happens, for instance, for the relationships from corn to Chile and Colombia and from wheat to Peru and Chile.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Candila & Salvatore Farace, 2018. "On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:116-:d:174522
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/4/116/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/6/4/116/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    2. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
    3. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3246-3262, July.
    4. Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    6. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T., 2009. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 95-100, June.
    7. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Scognamillo, 2017. "On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 155-178, February.
    8. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    9. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 611-617.
    10. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti, 2018. "External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 88, pages 51-76, Enero - J.
    11. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    12. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    13. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    14. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Cross-market linkages between commodities, stocks and bonds," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1008-1018, July.
    15. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11709 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2017. "A Simple Test for Causality in Volatility," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-5, March.
    18. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    19. Jin, Xiaoye & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon & Tamvakis, Michael, 2012. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2125-2134.
    20. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    21. Saban Nazlioglu & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Volatility transmission between Islamic and conventional equity markets: evidence from causality-in-variance test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(46), pages 4996-5011, October.
    22. Robert F. Engle & Eric Ghysels & Bumjean Sohn, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 776-797, July.
    23. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    24. Hassan Mohammadi & Yuting Tan, 2015. "Return and Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the United States," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, April.
    25. Hamadi, Hassan & Bassil, Charbel & Nehme, Tamara, 2017. "News surprises and volatility spillover among agricultural commodities: The case of corn, wheat, soybean and soybean oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-157.
    26. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    27. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    28. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    29. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
    30. Gülin Vardar & Yener Coşkun & Tezer Yelkenci, 2018. "Shock transmission and volatility spillover in stock and commodity markets: evidence from advanced and emerging markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 231-288, August.
    31. von Braun, Joachim, 2008. "Food and financial crises: Implications for agriculture and the poor," Food policy reports 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    32. Amendola, Alessandra & Candila, Vincenzo & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2019. "On the asymmetric impact of macro–variables on volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 135-152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Urtubia & Alfonso Novales & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2021. "Cross-Hedging Portfolios in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence for the LATIBEX Index," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Alessandra Amendola & Marinella Boccia & Vincenzo Candila & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2020. "Energy and non–energy Commodities: Spillover Effects on African Stock Markets," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 1-7.
    3. Daniel May & Ourania Tremma, 2023. "Effects of Sustainable Regulations at Agricultural International Market Failures: A Dynamic Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-10, January.
    4. Pavel Kotyza & Katarzyna Czech & Michał Wielechowski & Luboš Smutka & Petr Procházka, 2021. "Sugar Prices vs. Financial Market Uncertainty in the Time of Crisis: Does COVID-19 Induce Structural Changes in the Relationship?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Carlotta Penone & Elisa Giampietri & Samuele Trestini, 2021. "Hedging Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Contracts to Minimize Price Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Italian Field Crop Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandra Amendola & Marinella Boccia & Vincenzo Candila & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2020. "Energy and non–energy Commodities: Spillover Effects on African Stock Markets," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 1-7.
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Toparli, Elif Akay, 2018. "On the risk spillover across the oil market, stock market, and the oil related CDS sectors: A volatility impulse response approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 813-827.
    3. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    4. Noureddine Benlagha, 2014. "Volatility Linkage of Nominal and Index-linked Bond Returns: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 4, pages 49-60, November.
    5. Fengler, Matthias R. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2015. "Measuring spot variance spillovers when (co)variances are time-varying - the case of multivariate GARCH models," MPRA Paper 72197, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2016.
    6. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    7. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2020. "Correlation and spillover effects between the US and international banking sectors: New evidence and implications for risk management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    8. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    9. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2017. "Asymmetry in spillover effects: Evidence for international stock index futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 94-111.
    10. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    11. Stelios D. Bekiros, 2013. "Decoupling and the Spillover Effects of the US Financial Crisis: Evidence from the BRIC Markets," Working Paper series 21_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    13. Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. David Gabauer, 2020. "Volatility impulse response analysis for DCC‐GARCH models: The role of volatility transmission mechanisms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 788-796, August.
    15. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T., 2009. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 95-100, June.
    16. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    17. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2017. "Volatility spillover and multivariate volatility impulse response analysis of GFC news events," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(33), pages 3246-3262, July.
    18. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    19. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:116-:d:174522. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.