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Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets

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  • Karali, Berna
  • Ramirez, Octavio A.

Abstract

We analyze the time-varying volatility and spillover effects in crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas futures markets by incorporating changes in important macroeconomic variables and major political and weather-related events into the conditional variance equations. We allow asymmetric responses to random disturbances in each market as well as to good and bad economic news related to the overall economy. Results show the presence of asymmetric effects in both random disturbances and macroeconomic variables. A bidirectional volatility spillover effect is found between natural gas and crude oil and between the natural gas and heating oil markets. Crude oil volatility is found to increase following major political, financial, and natural events. Seasonality and day-of-the-week effects are found in the crude oil and heating oil markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:46:y:2014:i:c:p:413-421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.06.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric shocks; Energy markets; GARCH; Oil; Spillover effects; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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