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Testing Co-Volatility Spillovers for Natural Gas Spot, Futures and ETF Spot using Dynamic Conditional Covariances

Listed author(s):
  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan)

  • Michael McAleer

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

  • Yanghuiting Wang

    (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan)

There is substantial empirical evidence that energy and financial markets are closely connected. As one of the most widely-used energy resources worldwide, natural gas has a large daily trading volume. In order to hedge the risk of natural gas spot markets, a large number of hedging strategies can be used, especially with the rapid development of natural gas derivatives markets. These hedging instruments include natural gas futures and options, as well as Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) prices that are related to natural gas stock prices. The volatility spillover effect is the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical, biological or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility of another physical, biological or financial asset. Investigating volatility spillovers within and across energy and financial markets is a crucial aspect of constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies. The paper tests and calculates spillover effects among natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets using the multivariate conditional volatility diagonal BEKK model. The data used include natural gas spot and futures returns data from two major international natural gas derivatives markets, namely NYMEX (USA) and ICE (UK), as well as ETF data of natural gas companies from the stock markets in the USA and UK. The empirical results show that there are significant spillover effects in natural gas spot, futures and ETF markets for both USA and UK. Such a result suggests that both natural gas futures and ETF products within and beyond the country might be considered when constructing optimal dynamic hedging strategies for natural gas spot prices.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 16-047/III.

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Date of creation: 27 Jun 2016
Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160047
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  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-08, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  2. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Tansuchat, R., 2010. "Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-14, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  6. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "How are VIX and Stock Index ETF Related?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  7. Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-010/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Jan 2017.
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  29. Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J. & Wang, Y-A., 2016. "Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2016-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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  34. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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