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Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging

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  • Trabelsi, Nader
  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat

Abstract

This study sheds a new light on the dependence and the directional predictability between eight major energy price returns, using the Cross-Quantilogram (CQ) and the Partial CQ (PCQ) analysis. The energy prices cover the time series for the U.S. natural gas and seven internationally traded crude oil types. The results reveal a significant directional predictability running from most of energy commodities returns to the OPEC basket and the very light Tapis crude oil returns. However, the quantile predictability in both directions is enabled only for the relations between the light Brent and the light WTI, and between the OPEC basket and the Malaysian Tapis. The time-varying predictability analysis reveals that there is a significant upper quantile dependence between these international energy commodities. Finally, we find that the TAPIS can be a good hedging vehicle for other energy markets. These findings may be instructive for both policymakers (in terms of financial stability) and market participants (in terms of performance).

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  • Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822000675
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101715
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    2. Anwer, Zaheer & Farid, Saqib & Khan, Ashraf & Benlagha, Noureddine, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies versus environmentally sustainable assets: Does a perfect hedge exist?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 418-431.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dependence; Directional predictability; Cross-quantilogram; Energy market; Portfolio performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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