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Explaining credit default swap spreads by means of realized jumps and volatilities in the energy market

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  • Da Fonseca, José
  • Ignatieva, Katja
  • Ziveyi, Jonathan

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between credit default swap (CDS) spreads for the Energy sector and oil futures dynamics. Using data on light sweet crude oil futures from 2004 to 2013, which contains a crisis period, we examine the importance of volatility and jumps extracted from the futures in explaining CDS spread changes. The analysis is performed at an index level and by rating group; as well as for the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods. Our findings are consistent with Merton's theoretical framework. At an index level, futures jumps are important when explaining CDS spread changes, with negative jumps having higher impact during the crisis. The continuous volatility part is significant and positive, indicating that futures volatility conveys relevant information for the CDS market. As for the analysis per rating group, negative jumps have an increasing importance as the credit rating deteriorates and during the crisis period, while the results for positive jumps and futures volatility are mixed. Overall, the relation between the CDS market and the futures market is stronger during volatile periods and strengthened after the Global Financial Crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Da Fonseca, José & Ignatieva, Katja & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Explaining credit default swap spreads by means of realized jumps and volatilities in the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 215-228.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:215-228
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.022
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    2. Alturki,Sultan Abdulaziz M & Hibbert,Ann Marie, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on Sovereign Default Risk," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9546, The World Bank.
    3. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2023. "Systemwide directional connectedness from Crude Oil to sovereign credit risk," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
    5. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Safiullah, Md & Kabir, Md. Nurul & Miah, Mohammad Dulal, 2021. "Carbon emissions and credit ratings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Rangga Handika & Sania Ashraf, 2018. "Financialized Commodities and Stock Indices Volatilities," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 153-164.
    8. Yihong Ma, Simon Cottrell, Sarath Delpachitra, Xiao Yu, Ping Jiang, and Quan Tran Ha Minh, 2023. "What Drives Credit Spreads of Oil Companies? Evidence from the Upstream, Integrated and Downstream Industries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    9. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    10. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Commodity volatility shocks and BRIC sovereign risk: A GARCH-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 385-392.
    11. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Asset pricing factors and bank CDS spreads," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-41.
    12. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina & Wongkantarakorn, Jutamas, 2022. "Extreme risk spillovers from commodity indexes to sovereign CDS spreads of commodity dependent countries: A VAR quantile analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Trabelsi, Nader & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil futures; CDS spread; Realized jumps; Realized volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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